8 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Point of reference is the blue dotted vertical.....most important I feel...and yes...I'll say it again...is the OEX:SPX ratio at the bottom....

I really don't think a rising dollar is going to be bearish for equities......have a comparison....will history repeat? Probably not...but often rhymes.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p71167645816&a=112557640&r=3992.png

[arbman]

What you are saying is a hyperinflation for the rest of the world vs a stable inflation here. I don't know how this will happen while US is still creating the record deficit unless not anymore. If the economy slows down, the deficit will certainly can not shrink due to the decreasing tax revenues. Did the foreigners stop buying the treasuries forcing the spending cuts of the Americans? The higher rates appear to be saying so. IMHO, it is more of a deflationary or slow growth environment at the moment, the USD should definitely bounce higher then. The market probably entered into a trading range here at best. I certainly do not think that this is the late '90s unless the Fed comes out and cuts the rates and they can't do it since USD is too low. I think further correction would be healthier than a trading range personally...

[Woody]

TP be interesting to add $INDU to your charts......some say the weak dollar has lead to Dow outperformance, also add CRB Index and Gold, OIL to see what it means for Commodities. Nice Study. CW

[ogm]

I like strong dollar. There is absolutely nothing wrong with it. I want MY dollars to be strong. And have buying power. Strong currencies attract investments and capital flows. Falling currency to prop up some exporters is meaningless. It destroys the value of money for everyone. Go Strong Dollar !

[eminimee]

Woody..is there something other than $HUI that we could use that started before 1995?



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$USD&p=M&st=1980-01-01&i=p39168872674&a=113047756&r=525.png

[diogenes227]

What a great and sad chart this is, an absolutely perfect portrait of the latest decline of the United States on the world stage. I would like to add a historical footnote: that peak of the US dollar in the Bush administration back there in January, 2002 -- 1/29/2002, to be precise -- was the day President Bush gave his "axis of evil" speech.

[ogm]

What a great and sad chart this is, an absolutely perfect portrait of the latest decline of the United States on the world stage.

I would like to add a historical footnote: that peak of the US dollar in the Bush administration back there in January, 2002 -- 1/29/2002, to be precise -- was the day President Bush gave his "axis of evil" speech.

That darn "Axis of Evil" . Look at what they did to our dollar I want the strong dollar back. I want the buying power.

[gm_general]

As far as I heard it, the Euro was developed to stick it to the dollar - well, that 2002 dollar top and subsequent drop, doesn't it have at least something to do with the ascendancy of the Euro? And of course many of the countries we bray at since then have attempted to price oil in Euros, reducing the need of oil consumers to hold dollar reserves. But the point that I want to make is this - the drop in the dollar is a decent component of the rise in stocks. Why? Lets assume a simple case where all companies on the exchanges in the US stay at a steady value. During that time, the dollar drops in value. Well, the stocks of those companies are expressed in dollars, and it will take more dollars to express the value of those stocks. Its not a real increase in value, but the stock prices go up. So if this holds, why would stocks go up if the dollar goes up in value? It would have to be something else, like a mania, genuine prosperity, interest rates, etc.

[beta]

What a great and sad chart this is, an absolutely perfect portrait of the latest decline of the United States on the world stage.

I would like to add a historical footnote: that peak of the US dollar in the Bush administration back there in January, 2002 -- 1/29/2002, to be precise -- was the day President Bush gave his "axis of evil" speech.

That darn "Axis of Evil" . Look at what they did to our dollar I want the strong dollar back. I want the buying power.

"They" ?

If you want a strong dollar, write your congressman and tell "them" to stop borrowing the rest of the world's money to fund senseless wars. (OK, moderator, go ahead and delete that).

Here's my ***FFF:

USD 40
SPX 30,000

by 2015


(***) Far-out Fearless Forecast

Edited by beta, 27 July 2007 - 01:19 PM.