6 replies to this topic

[thespookyone]

"No doubt" hmmmmmm Well there isn't exactly "no doubt", because I not only doubt it-I expect quite the opposite. When I read the board last night, there seemed to be "no doubt" we'd get a bounce today, which I truly wasn't feeling. I came in short, and got shorter soon after the open-covered the close. I have posted my bearish thoughts here many times, but my trading was as the market allowed, short when appropriate-as well as long (as best I could-which, actually went pretty well). For many reasons, some technical, some not-I feel the market probasbly reverses Monday. Kisa,your points on the credit markets have been thoughtfull, and well made. But, lets not forget how the market ignored this problem all the way up, how the media and brokers soft peddled it.. Although spreads recently widened, it was clear WAY before Tuesday it was a problem. Turn on your tv or take a look at cnn, ect. and there are endless warnings of the credit issue NOW, hmmmm. BKS may indeed be bottoming right here, large cap, market moving-and NOW, Joe Sixpack gets warned, "sure". Oil stocks have been looking toppy as they lag the commodity, screaming bearish for these stocks, in my opinion. Experience tells me the oil stocks lead the commodity, both up, and down. Wonder if lower gas prices might just give the market a bump up here,like, maybe-last Summer? Notice the crack spread contracting at a time when crude is at it's highs, actually causing gas prices to drop? hmmm. The dollar looks ripe to strengthen here, might that attract buyers from markets abroad, currently getting trashed-if they feel a little safer in the buck? Could those buyers add a bit of liquidity we have been lacking lately, that has given the market those nice pushes up? Oversold can remain that way for quite some time? Sure, trees grow toward the sky, as well, but not past it. Many bottom marking rechnicals in play here as well, and I think their call comes to fruition SOON, Monday, Tuesday at the latest. Have the media been spelling out the "coming decline" to Joe Sixpack to do him a favor? "sure" Joes stock will be, and is, being bought cheaply here, as always, so he can chase it later, when he thinks he's missing the next great bull market-thereby pushing the market up-some things change, some things stay the same-like fear and greed. I'm thinking between the media and market action, we have enough fear-the ingrediant that was missing so far for the next run up. Is a true corection more than 5% SURE, does it need to occur right now-nope. My take is at some point Monday, we are down, between 100 and 120 on the Dow, in fast water-then we turn, and don't look back. The market doesn't announce tops, or bottoms-especially to the public. Spooky

[arbman]

All of my indicators are showing a 20 wk cycle bottom, along with all the smaller ones. Probably the larger ones (Hurst's 4.5 yr that Airedale speaks off) are also bottoming, I expected them to bottom actually Thursday latest. However, a bit higher than here, something like 50 points (around 1510). So, I follow my system, but if the market crashes on Monday, I won't be surprised either. The market is trying to price the credit problems by going sideways, imho, rather than rallying higher to new highs or crashing lower probably... Although I think a crash is possible, I did not bet on it, I am only daytrading since there is enough volatility here and the market is not really gapping higher or lower more than the daily range, so why risk the capital overnight? - kisa

[Russ]

Getting close to the bottom....
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYSI&p=W&b=1&g=0&i=p88691990982&r=8.png

[ogm]

... But, lets not forget how the market ignored this problem all the way up, how the media and brokers soft peddled it.. Although spreads recently widened, it was clear WAY before Tuesday it was a problem. Turn on your tv or take a look at cnn, ect. and there are endless warnings of the credit issue NOW, hmmmm...."

Bingo. Thats what I'm thinking exactly. I was pounding the table here to short financials. And the problems were in the dark back then. Now all the problems are out in the open. Everyone is aware of why financials are actually selling. Media parade this weekend will be endless. Thats why I'm buying debt now. Too much publicity about the debt crash. .

[ChickenLittle]

GREAT thoughts and a lot to agree with.

"No doubt" hmmmmmm

Well there isn't exactly "no doubt", because I not only doubt it-I expect quite the opposite. When I read the board last night, there seemed to be "no doubt" we'd get a bounce today, which I truly wasn't feeling. I came in short, and got shorter soon after the open-covered the close. I have posted my bearish thoughts here many times, but my trading was as the market allowed, short when appropriate-as well as long (as best I could-which, actually went pretty well). For many reasons, some technical, some not-I feel the market probasbly reverses Monday.
Kisa,your points on the credit markets have been thoughtfull, and well made. But, lets not forget how the market ignored this problem all the way up, how the media and brokers soft peddled it.. Although spreads recently widened, it was clear WAY before Tuesday it was a problem. Turn on your tv or take a look at cnn, ect. and there are endless warnings of the credit issue NOW, hmmmm. BKS may indeed be bottoming right here, large cap, market moving-and NOW, Joe Sixpack gets warned, "sure". Oil stocks have been looking toppy as they lag the commodity, screaming bearish for these stocks, in my opinion. Experience tells me the oil stocks lead the commodity, both up, and down. Wonder if lower gas prices might just give the market a bump up here,like, maybe-last Summer? Notice the crack spread contracting at a time when crude is at it's highs, actually causing gas prices to drop? hmmm.

The dollar looks ripe to strengthen here, might that attract buyers from markets abroad, currently getting trashed-if they feel a little safer in the buck? Could those buyers add a bit of liquidity we have been lacking lately, that has given the market those nice pushes up?

Oversold can remain that way for quite some time? Sure, trees grow toward the sky, as well, but not past it. Many bottom marking rechnicals in play here as well, and I think their call comes to fruition SOON, Monday, Tuesday at the latest. Have the media been spelling out the "coming decline" to Joe Sixpack to do him a favor? "sure" Joes stock will be, and is, being bought cheaply here, as always, so he can chase it later, when he thinks he's missing the next great bull market-thereby pushing the market up-some things change, some things stay the same-like fear and greed. I'm thinking between the media and market action, we have enough fear-the ingrediant that was missing so far for the next run up. Is a true corection more than 5% SURE, does it need to occur right now-nope.

My take is at some point Monday, we are down, between 100 and 120 on the Dow, in fast water-then we turn, and don't look back. The market doesn't announce tops, or bottoms-especially to the public.

Spooky

[thespookyone]

Kisa, I hear you on the benefit of daytrading lately, I have been concentrating there as well. I did take a couple ovenite positions on close, due to Mark and semi's volume comments, as it seems those late sticks are fairly compelling. I got a couple nice gaps, one up, two down. But, I think this round up I'll do a bit of swing trading, as I expect on the rise up that the vix will get a lot lower, making daytrading less profitable than it has been. Also, sometimes on a fast move up, a lot of gains come "in the night"- and if the risk is going to die down, I want those too, oink oink. I'm dead flat over the weekend as well, but will probably end up very long Monday if my view plays out. Would like to mention that your posts have been especially valuable lately-good takes-thanks for sharing them!

Edited by thespookyone, 27 July 2007 - 10:06 PM.

[arbman]

Would like to mention that your posts have been especially valuable lately-good takes-thanks for sharing them

Thanks...

This afternoon while I was watching the final hour, I thought boy haven't we all covered and even some of us went long a bit and the best part of the decline is yet to come on Monday and even Airedale is not on it?!?