4yr cycle low was Jun-Jul 2006 as noted at that time with the bottom call.
Now, we have extremely negative and prolonged market breadth and falling price momentum without intraday bounce.
This is not a sign of a start of a new bull market any time soon. Price momentum was showing extreme divergence from market breadth for the last several months; and, now, price action is confirming the market breadth as commented that we will see sharp sell-off.
This market correction is entirely different characteristic than that we had during the last two correction, i.e. Jun-Jul 2006 and Mar 2007 bottoms because of the economic cycle and because of parabolic price actions which we have seen.
Considering the last couple of days of sell-off, breadth actions, and price momentums, I do not think that we will start a new bull market any time soon.
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http://www.traders-t...l=Trend-Signals
Hi TT:
Hope that you are doing great. Was off from the board because I was traveling during the last couple of months, but was posting on my ihub board.
Commented on $SOX/SMH 7-mo trading range breaking during April 2007; and now we have a confirmation and traded to targets.
Also, Qs traded to target, 50 +/-.
Dow traded to 14000 target.
SPX traded to SPX 1550 target
http://www.traders-t...hl=SOX breakout
http://www.traders-t...hl=SOX breakout
During early May, the initial vst/ST sell-signals resolved in consolidation and have broken out from RST/megaphone formation which I commented during the last couple of months while I was traveling.
http://investorshub....p?board_id=8800
Commented on the negative breadth which is not confirming the SPX 1550 breakout and noted that the vst/ST "W" formation breakout targeting SPX 1600.
Because we have strong trend, it is difficult to time the ST top as I have changed unconfirmed top formation call on 7/10 with vst intra-breakout retest rebound.
Since markets are in control than ever before, MM does have greater capability to control the market direction.
Anyone thinks that $USD will trade below 79?
Good trades
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http://investorshub....amp;txt2find=mo
Posted by: __1Best__
In reply to: None
Date:7/10/2007 8:10:35 PM
Post #of 1750
ST Top, 4yr-8yr Cycle: We have a very nice run since Jun-Jul 2006 low with "WWW" formation. All targets set during Jun-Jul 2006 have met. Considering various factors such as meeting targets, seasonality, breadth, etc., forming a ST Top going into traditional Sept/Oct bottom seems to be rational. This will provide a good buying opportunity and will reset Breadth negative divergences as commented that markets are showing sequential lower/low breadth while prices are advancing. Since markets have broken out of LT resistance, e.g. Qs broken above LT RST upper TL resistance, markets are favorable for LT with a good possibility of breaking above SPX 1540. This is consistent with the cycle comment during Jun-Jul 2006 low as 4-yr cyclical bottom within 8yr up-cycle.
Qs met 49 target for Apr 2007 breakout with Cup & Handle formation. Because of high volatility which I have seen during early Jun 2007, I issued "Sell/Take Profit" on Jun 7; then, a vst buy on Jun 8 with a note, "Higher Risk/Reward with high volatility" - the triple buy signal followed by reiterating 49 +/- target which it was initially 50 +/-, noted during March 2007 bottom. The note was based on the China sell-off followed by a sharp bounce off even though U.S. markets have not traded in similar fashion with high volatility as we have seen on $SSEC, it was prudent to be cautious.
As shown on the Qs daily chart, while it met 49 target, it has broken above the daily RST formation. I commented that Qs has broken above LT RST resistance as shown on the Qs weekly chart; hence, breaking above daily RST TL resistance was expected.
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SPX has traded under SPX 1540 +/- LT top resistance, as shown on SPX monthly chart, during the last six weeks after making SPX 1540 high on Jun 4. It has formed ST Triple Top formation with the third "W" formation since the Jun-Jul 2006 low. After reassessing the market actions, it is likely that Markets are forming "ST Top" going into the traditional Sept/Oct low. My cyclical analysis also indicates that Mar 2007 low was the 9mo low and the next low would be the traditional fall low which is a 3-mo pull back from the current level to SPX 1440 +/-. This will reset Breadth N.D. and will provide a good buying opportunity.
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$NYA traded to above 10100, new high, yesterday. As shown on the $NYSI breadth chart, it is continuing to show negative divergence, making new low on weekly. Neg Divergence can last long as we have seen it for the last several months. Having 3 months pull back into Oct 2007 low will set up a good buying opportunity after resetting N.D.
http://www.investors...age_id=21100050
http://www.trend-signals.com/
~~~
http://www.trend-sig.../07Jul14_22.htm
Thursday, July 19, 2007 MSN Summary || Yahoo Finance || iHub Financial Board
DOW closed above 14000 which is a significant advancement, 1000 point rally since April 07 13000 breakout. SPX is trading near 1550, closing at 1553.08 and as commented before, the next target is SPX 1600. However, market is due for a correction as we can see it is showing significant negative breadth. Until we see that market is forming a ST top, shorts need to be careful. Market is advancing by squeezing shorts.
~~~
http://www.stockchar...09398&r=568.png
http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png
http://www.stockchar...40300&r=617.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22232131775&a=76929034&r=724.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p72794457382&a=76929550&r=647.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=3&dy=0&i=p53935525265&a=77295648&r=218.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1990-01-01&i=p55891233677&a=87776994&r=893.png
Edited by Trend-Signals, 27 July 2007 - 09:33 PM.