9 replies to this topic

[airedale88]

sigma el up 18 yr up 9 yr topping 4.5 yr bottoming 18 month/78-80 wk bottoming 9 month/39-40 wk bottoming 20 wk bottoming 10 wk bottoming 5 wk bottoming

[arbman]

How do you know that the 9 yr is topping, there are still 4.5 yrs to go on that one... I'd say 2008 and 2009 will be still up... (meaning 9 yr should probably top in 2010 and decline into 2012)

[Echo]

In Hurst talk, stating that the 9yr cycle is topping is simply based on its harmonic wave, 4.5yrs up and 4.5 yrs down to its cyclical low. Since sigma el is up and the 18yr is up, price should make a right translated high into 2008 or 2009 as you stated. Heck, the way this 4.5yr cycle has gone, we might be lucky to get 2-3 months down into the 9 year nest of lows, lol. Echo

[arbman]

Heck, the way this 4.5yr cycle has gone, we might be lucky to get 2-3 months down into the 9 year nest of lows, lol.

So true, the consolidation and how it ramps up from here will be more telling about the underlying strength. I would favor a little more correction into August immediately next, but in any case this is probably because the 36 yr generational cycle has turned up or turning up, beside the 18 yr cycle. That's what the 9yr cycle will be riding on...

Can't we even get a decent 10% correction?

[CAzzaro]

[quote name='kisacik' date='Jul 28 2007, 11:02 PM' post='302838'] [quote]Heck, the way this 4.5yr cycle
Can't we even get a decent 10% correction?
[/quote]



You sound convinced that the correction is over. What makes you think it won't be 10%, or for that matter, more?

[arbman]

I am not convinced, however, the severe oversold means a bounce should happen very soon, unless it crashes. Now, there were similar severe oversold conditions before that managed to decline further with the minor oversold rallies. So, I will not load up until the lows get retested, I am only trading the intraday momentum without much conviction at the moment... Hurst model itself can not predict the cycle straddles, meaning fundamental events that lead to deeper selling or extended rallies... One clue about the current condition though, there has been very aggressive speculation out there for the declines, if people can find that much cash to sell short or buy puts etc, it just can not be that bad... - kisa

Edited by kisacik, 28 July 2007 - 11:36 PM.

[bliss just missed]

I am not convinced, however, the severe oversold means a bounce should happen very soon, unless it crashes.

Now, there were similar severe oversold conditions before that managed to decline further with the minor oversold rallies. So, I will not load up until the lows get retested, I am only trading the intraday momentum without much conviction at the moment...

Hurst model itself can not predict the cycle straddles, meaning fundamental events that lead to deeper selling or extended rallies...

One clue about the current condition though, there has been very aggressive speculation out there for the declines, if people can find that much cash to sell short or buy puts etc, it just can not be that bad...

- kisa

Interesting comments......curious if your take on the market not being that bad is based on the last 4 years of the bull market and a buy the dip mentality or would you feel this way if we were in the midst of a bear market? I'm fascinated by the psychology of the markets and if we're all conditioned by the latest trends versus the possibility that there may be something brewing which catches many by sursprise. Too many folks are looking for a bounce near the 200 day ema in the spx...methinks we see 1400 before 1500 imho.

[arbman]

methinks we see 1400 before 1500 imho.

Why not, it has to convince everyone that it is not coming back.

I would be a very aggressive seller below 1437...

- kisa

[Echo]

Using a 96 trading day offset, the 40wk fld is current sitting around the March 14 lows area, 1390. The next 5 TD will have a sharp rise in this same fld to the 1434 area. I would think that 1434 +/- intraday breaks might be reasonable max risk unless something different is going on. Also, 1434 area appears to be a VTL support on the weekly charts using the June 06 and Mar 07 lows. Maybe Airedale can comment. Echo

[airedale88]

echo, good analysis. that 1434 area would also be in the 5% to 6% lower envelope area. the 2003 4.5 yr cycle low held at the 5% envelope, the sept 86 4.5 yr cycle low (and the SPX price action leading into that low looks similar to current action) held around the lower 6% envelope.

How do you know that the 9 yr is topping, there are still 4.5 yrs to go on that one... I'd say 2008 and 2009 will be still up...

(meaning 9 yr should probably top in 2010 and decline into 2012)

kisa, echo explained this very well. the 9 yr cycle is topping as this 4.5 yr cycle is bottoming. that does not mean a 9 yr price top is in, that top will be right translated due to cycles larger than 9 yrs pushing higher. what it does mean is that the 9 yr cycle itself will no longer be contributing toward upward cyclic movement.