cycles
#1
Posted 28 July 2007 - 09:25 PM
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#2
Posted 28 July 2007 - 09:47 PM
#3
Posted 28 July 2007 - 10:17 PM
#4
Posted 28 July 2007 - 11:02 PM
Heck, the way this 4.5yr cycle has gone, we might be lucky to get 2-3 months down into the 9 year nest of lows, lol.
So true, the consolidation and how it ramps up from here will be more telling about the underlying strength. I would favor a little more correction into August immediately next, but in any case this is probably because the 36 yr generational cycle has turned up or turning up, beside the 18 yr cycle. That's what the 9yr cycle will be riding on...
Can't we even get a decent 10% correction?
#5
Posted 28 July 2007 - 11:12 PM
Can't we even get a decent 10% correction?
[/quote]
You sound convinced that the correction is over. What makes you think it won't be 10%, or for that matter, more?
#6
Posted 28 July 2007 - 11:35 PM
Edited by kisacik, 28 July 2007 - 11:36 PM.
#7
Posted 28 July 2007 - 11:49 PM
Interesting comments......curious if your take on the market not being that bad is based on the last 4 years of the bull market and a buy the dip mentality or would you feel this way if we were in the midst of a bear market? I'm fascinated by the psychology of the markets and if we're all conditioned by the latest trends versus the possibility that there may be something brewing which catches many by sursprise. Too many folks are looking for a bounce near the 200 day ema in the spx...methinks we see 1400 before 1500 imho.I am not convinced, however, the severe oversold means a bounce should happen very soon, unless it crashes.
Now, there were similar severe oversold conditions before that managed to decline further with the minor oversold rallies. So, I will not load up until the lows get retested, I am only trading the intraday momentum without much conviction at the moment...
Hurst model itself can not predict the cycle straddles, meaning fundamental events that lead to deeper selling or extended rallies...
One clue about the current condition though, there has been very aggressive speculation out there for the declines, if people can find that much cash to sell short or buy puts etc, it just can not be that bad...
- kisa
#8
Posted 29 July 2007 - 12:12 AM
methinks we see 1400 before 1500 imho.
Why not, it has to convince everyone that it is not coming back.
I would be a very aggressive seller below 1437...
- kisa
#9
Posted 29 July 2007 - 12:49 AM
#10
Posted 30 July 2007 - 07:23 AM
How do you know that the 9 yr is topping, there are still 4.5 yrs to go on that one... I'd say 2008 and 2009 will be still up...
(meaning 9 yr should probably top in 2010 and decline into 2012)
kisa, echo explained this very well. the 9 yr cycle is topping as this 4.5 yr cycle is bottoming. that does not mean a 9 yr price top is in, that top will be right translated due to cycles larger than 9 yrs pushing higher. what it does mean is that the 9 yr cycle itself will no longer be contributing toward upward cyclic movement.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England