7 replies to this topic

[tommyt]

I'm curious what the elliot wave people are labeling this? I guess bulls would say its "A", and bears would say we are in "1" down. It seems awefull powerful and impulse like with volume, but I'll guess its an ABC..A to 13,200, B back to 13,600, and C down to 12,800 (200dish). Thoughts?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t76914815104&r=6507.png

[LarryT]

I'm curious what the elliot wave people are labeling this? I guess bulls would say its "A", and bears would say we are in "1" down. It seems awefull powerful and impulse like with volume, but I'll guess its an ABC..A to 13,200, B back to 13,600, and C down to 12,800 (200dish). Thoughts?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t76914815104&r=6507.png

The wave is still in progress so until it is completed and we see a recovey no way to know for sure. I can tell you this, five waves down can be an A wave or wave one after an AB super cycle top. This wave has more down side momentum than anything less than a 76 year cycle.

The market topped at 1555 and dropped to first move low at 1529. First move up topped at 1547.

I now have all the information to calculate where the second move down will low out. 1555 – 1529 = 26 points.

There are four main Fibonacci ratio extensions 1.618, 2.618, 4.25 and on very rare almost never 6.85. Only a super cycle wave top would achieve the 6.85 ratio.

26 x 1.618 = 42 points 26 x 2.618 = 68 points 26 x 4.25 = 110 points 26 x 6.85 = 178 points.

1547 - 42 = 1505 1547 - 68 = 1479 1547 - 110 = 1437 1547 - 178 = 1369



Take note the 1479 has been solidly dropped below making the 1437 a high odds target. I then use the Fibonacci ratio .618 of the range between 1479 and 1437 to get an estimation of the odds of dropping to 1437. Below 1463 odds are high and below 1453 1437 is almost a sure thing. Friday during the final 30 minutes cash dropped below 1463 so odds are now high we will see the 1436 area achieved. One last note of this, the final 1369 will be seen later on during the next down leg if the market remains in bearish trend as I think it will. It could also happen this week and not be abnormal.

Good Luck,
Larry d:^)

Edited by LarryT, 29 July 2007 - 06:30 AM.

[eminimee]

INDU in my opinion is not the one to watch.....OEX is king here...and that 5 down you have marked Spooky is going to end up as a 5 wave C wave.....but the target is about right....1440 area. Your wave 5 top is actually a B wave top of an expanded flat.... Much cleaner on oex which I've posted far too many times.

[LarryT]

INDU in my opinion is not the one to watch.....OEX is king here...and that 5 down you have marked Spooky is going to end up as a 5 wave C wave.....but the target is about right....1440 area.
Your wave 5 top is actually a B wave top of an expanded flat....
Much cleaner on oex which I've posted far too many times.

Thanks for the reply, I am open to that possibility if Jim's Trendicator bottoms. If that happens and 1437 has held support back up the truck, sell the farm, rob a bank, sell the kids get all the money you can get and go long. Course if 1437 is taken out.........and the Trendicator does not bottom..... I could be right with my favored analysis. In a normal market Friday was the end of a down bias wave and Monday starts an up bias week. If the market does open below 1453 Monday the end of the down bias will most likely happen at the open Wednesday. A gap down to daily projected up cycle low that morning should be bought for the up bias this week has.

LT

[humble1]

nice chart, larry ! could you please provide your longer term spx e-wave charts with labels ? a friend at another site tends to agree that we could have seen a multi-generational type top. p.s. do you go to perry's site anymore ? is it still open ? regards

[tommyt]

thanks for the help guys! TT

[slick]

nice chart, larry !

could you please provide your longer term spx e-wave charts with labels ? a friend at another site tends to agree that we could have seen a multi-generational type top.

p.s. do you go to perry's site anymore ? is it still open ?

regards

great to see that you're still breathing hum, what is that "other site" you go to? and don't worry about perry's place--all the good posters have been kicked out.

[humble1]

hey, slick ! doing great here and hope you are doing well: i am havng my best year ever ! i have been selling the high chart points WHEN they coincided with astro turns (this late new moon was just IDEAL. it has an SC component, too, and caught the false break.) and putting in a trailing profit stop as the market falls off. this produces really nice trading results and has kept me positioned short for the good breaks. ___________________________________________________________ larryt: i hope you stick around: there is no better chart man on the planet. i understand EXACTLY what you mean in your private note. "he" has a blind spot, i am sad to say, and does not realize how much damage that is doing to his site.