9 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=M&st=1993-10-14&i=p56010808753&a=87051918&r=7391.png

[Specul8]

With the close at 13265.47 and the top BB at 12888.07 the DOW is a long way from support on the monthly!

[eminimee]

Yes...your point being? ....fwiw..I think 13000 holds the downside.

[Specul8]

My point was that with high P/C ratios and proximity of the the daily 200 SMA SPX I thought the markets were very close to a bottom from which we would rally to exceed previous highs but the monthly chart you show doesn't offer a lot of support.

[eminimee]

ahh..ok....no....but wasn't offering the monthly to show next support. I posted to show the longer term possible bullish implications. I'm watching oex 671/72 and ndx 1900/10 for the bottom

[arbman]

Tea, I always respect your analysis, but I doubt that this is the late '90s though (maybe for another decade yet)...

The recovery was solely driven by cheap liquidity and provided by the Chinese pegging their currency against the USD. The growth in US hasn't been a sustainable one for that reason. The productivity did not improve substantially like the late '90s. The direct investments were mostly driven by the public and private debt too. These are all quite the opposite of the late '90s where there was a surplus and rapidly improving productivity with the labor costs. It takes tremendous amount of more money to grow at the moment and this is happening at a time when the credit is becoming less available.

The market needs a miracle to sustain the late '90s pace at the moment...

- kisa

[eminimee]

Miracles are what dreams are made of.........wait until the Nov. crashette low...you'll feel differently and all oscillators will be reset....down from 1610...to either 1440 or sub 1200.

[arbman]

I think it digests further this range after an oversold rally...

[eminimee]

...what everrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[arbman]

...what everrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

My thoughts exactly, go enjoy the rest of the Sunday, I must say...