3 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

The last triple buy signal was the Feb. drop.
The bottom was near, but not yet.
In a crash, this would give you a buy signal and then you would lose all your money.
Anyway, it sure looks like one might begin to see bottoming action soon.
I'm thinking that we get a little rally which shoots up bullishness then a final drop before next Sunday's 3/4 moon.
NOTE: I don't have any stats, but when that lower BB is pierced to such an extent, I believe that it would be rare not to get a retest of that area. John Bollinger once said that a successful retest could even go lower in price but that it would remain within the lower bollinger band on the retest. (As it did on that March 14th spike low.)

Tread lightly and look for price conformation.
Buy #1: The RSI 2 is below 10, price above the 200ma.
Buy #2: The RSI 5 is below 30.
Buy #3: The CCI has turned up with the STO< 20.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p55108568751&a=94546561&r=8301.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 29 July 2007 - 01:05 PM.

[chicknsupe]

HEY.. Thanks for laying out rules of use for the RSI... very helpful!

[ChickenLittle]

"In a crash, this would give you a buy signal and then you would lose all your money. laugh.gif Anyway, it sure looks like one might begin to see bottoming action soon. I'm thinking that we get a little rally which shoots up bullishness then a final drop before next Sunday's 3/4 moon." Sounds like really wise words to me. High yield and others got a good bounce after trading hours on Friday. IMO, if the yen is up Monday morning and the pre-open stock market continues the after hours Friday bounce, we could get that first significant rally with a retest later in the week. All coincides with the Tuesday through Friday cycle bottom. I still like the late August to early September retest (or lower low) for the long cycle low. I don't think Airedale believes in the later scenario so my belief carries little weight or credibility (even with me sometimes). And I was looking for a Monday morning slaughter. Could still happen with world wide weakness before we open. If we are in the midst of a major financial accident (credit problem contagion), the rules go out the window.

[Rogerdodger]

What's with all the chickens lately? LOL!

HEY..
Thanks for laying out rules of use for the RSI...

very helpful!

Those are rules I've picked up in various places.
I have the rules posted on my BLOG if you wish to copy them easily.

I don't think Airedale believes in the later scenario

I'll always lean in favor of his remarkable work.
Of course, the fundamental base of the market could change lot's of stuff.
Dollar crash, Rate skyrocket, International attack, etc.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 29 July 2007 - 04:37 PM.