http://www.theglobea...PStory/Business
I found this article yesterday. This man is the brother of the CEO of Pepsi, a PhD, perfect credentials, a hedge fund manager at Trident Investment Management who made 10% last week and who used to work in mortgage-backed securities for Smith Barney.
He says the REAL credit crunch hasn't even hit yet:
<<When a real credit crunch hits - and we have not seen it yet - some banks and hedge funds won't even be able to figure out for months what their losses are on high-risk debt.
So they'll be paralyzed. And then? Lending activity dries up overnight, which leads to a U.S. recession, which brings on a global recession. "This could potentially make Long-Term Capital [whose collapse helped fuel the '98 crisis] look like some kind of walk in the park," Mr. Narayanan says. >>
He thinks we are only in the second or third inning of the credit crunch. <<The best-case scenario? A replay of the summer of '98, when the Dow lost about 20 per cent in a month-and-a-half. The worst? "More like the Great Depression of this century.">>
Nandu Narayanan
Started by
Wombat
, Jul 29 2007 01:04 PM
3 replies to this topic
#2
ChickenLittle
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 137 posts
Member
Posted 29 July 2007 - 03:00 PM
http://www.theglobea...PStory/Business
I found this article yesterday. This man is the brother of the CEO of Pepsi, a PhD, perfect credentials, a hedge fund manager at Trident Investment Management who made 10% last week and who used to work in mortgage-backed securities for Smith Barney.
He says the REAL credit crunch hasn't even hit yet:
<<When a real credit crunch hits - and we have not seen it yet - some banks and hedge funds won't even be able to figure out for months what their losses are on high-risk debt.
So they'll be paralyzed. And then? Lending activity dries up overnight, which leads to a U.S. recession, which brings on a global recession. "This could potentially make Long-Term Capital [whose collapse helped fuel the '98 crisis] look like some kind of walk in the park," Mr. Narayanan says. >>
He thinks we are only in the second or third inning of the credit crunch. <<The best-case scenario? A replay of the summer of '98, when the Dow lost about 20 per cent in a month-and-a-half. The worst? "More like the Great Depression of this century.">>
What a ray of sunshine.
History always repeats . . . only the details change.
#3
pdx5
-
- Traders-Talk User
- 9,529 posts
I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 29 July 2007 - 09:17 PM
OR......a heavy dose of reality? 
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
