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The Macro Value Trap


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#1 Cirrus

Cirrus

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Posted 30 July 2007 - 11:37 AM

We're seeing it in the money center banks and brokers. IMHO you will see this over the next several years. It will rhyme with 1966 and 1973. The 'values' due to earnings into an increasingly inflationary period will keep many fully or near fully invested until we get a nasty bear market ala 73-74. FWIW I don't expect the bear for another year or two as I would expect a mini blowoff in basic materials related plays first to get some capital chasing that sector. All just speculation on my part. However, the market is sending a message with C and JPM dividends and valuations despite C's most recent 'positive' report. There's increasingly a reason behind these valuations.