8 replies to this topic

[traderpaul]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYLOW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p45642847367&r=5180.png

[selecto]

[arbman]

so far everyone of these spikes marked major lows, so what is your point?!?

[selecto]

No point. Zen. Take from the chart what you can let it give you.

Edited by selecto, 30 July 2007 - 10:42 PM.

[traderpaul]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYLOW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p45642847367&r=5180.png

Let me explain my chart to the newbies here.....The selling we had was intense.....eight times more than March of this year.....The horizontal line is the line between bull and bear markets......Note we stayed below that line most of the year.....First warning was the surge in this oscillator in June.....When most of the averages made their high.....Now coming off the high we had another surge of new low......My point is this maket looks much weaker than what meets the eye....By the way, one more thing (Columbo line).....This decline did not generate enough fear.....(Seen this before and good for more on the upside)......

[relax]

new lows has market lows in the market previously but can't one make the argument that with so many stocks making new lows, these stocks will head lower and pull the market down just trying to see things from both perspectives how do you guys see it?

[airedale88]

here's how i see it. first of all, whenever one examines new highs or lows, look back 52 weeks to see what the market was doing for comparison. now, 52 wks ago, july 06, the markets were rising off a june/july bottom (depending on the index). that suggests that the big jump in new 52 wk lows we see now is some real technical damage, since all these new low stocks are trading below prices set last july, while broad averages are well above the prices of last july. some may interpret that as bearish. i interpret this as very bullish. we are very oversold based on 52 wk new lows. we are seeing an oversold level typical of a major cycle low (remember, this is how i look at it.), and i was expecting a major cycle low, the 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows, to bottom toward the end of july. all the new lows, all the declines vs advances in breadth, any and all other internal indicators showing great weakness, will be the fuel for the next leg up as a new 4.5 yr cycle starts it's progression.

[traderpaul]

here's how i see it. first of all, whenever one examines new highs or lows, look back 52 weeks to see what the market was doing for comparison. now, 52 wks ago, july 06, the markets were rising off a june/july bottom (depending on the index). that suggests that the big jump in new 52 wk lows we see now is some real technical damage, since all these new low stocks are trading below prices set last july, while broad averages are well above the prices of last july. some may interpret that as bearish. i interpret this as very bullish. we are very oversold based on 52 wk new lows. we are seeing an oversold level typical of a major cycle low (remember, this is how i look at it.), and i was expecting a major cycle low, the 4.5 yr nest of cycle lows, to bottom toward the end of july. all the new lows, all the declines vs advances in breadth, any and all other internal indicators showing great weakness, will be the fuel for the next leg up as a new 4.5 yr cycle starts it's progression.

Check out this with the last bear market.....The pattern is idential to the present one....Note that Index peaked in March.....It took 7 months for the new lows to reached the same level after the peak.....This time it took 1 week a big difference.....
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYLOW&p=D&st=2000-01-31&en=2003-07-31&i=p39177928394&r=3204.png

[arbman]

Paul, everyone of these spikes marked the lows for the following several weeks. Even if there is a bear market starting in the next 6 months, they are certainly not starting in the next few weeks, the lows are most likely in for the next few weeks and it might retest them over the next few weeks, but that's about it for now, imho... As you pointed out first, there was 780 lows, it is a very solid bottom for the next several weeks, if the indices do not decline lower right away --it would crash anyway...