5 replies to this topic

[Bob-C]

NM

[hiker]

you think this market bounce is not going to last from here?

I know it is customary to fade AJC by some folks....seems she and her firm have been correct about the overall trend for a few years.

49.12 for QQQQ ....impt horizontal with a t/l not far above...this could tell us whether this bounce will fail at either point or whether we blast through.

SPY has some hurdles to overcome as well..but who is to say better than AJC what happens in 2007/2008?

just like DW da chief..he takes a lot of disbelief, while being right for this entire "bounce" off the 2002/2003 lows.

why?

so if you were to enter a long swing trade at the ideal price for QQQQ and SPY...at what price would you target between now and November/january?

more on QQQQ posted yesterday...sure this bounce can turn around at any time, but it has not given anything but SPY and QQQQ buy signals on the short timeframes based on price action alone.... and not oscillators .... SPY closed on a 60 min preliminary buy signal yest -

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=73582

at another email list server site, I posted all day long following the buy signals on SPY..here are the final three posts without time stamps:

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really simply musings, related to being long which I am -

if trading SPX cash off the 3 minute chart...it continues to say stay long, even though the 5 and 15 min sma's are in whipsaw action in their crossovers...in any event those 2 sma's and price remain above the 200sma on the 3 minute..so depending on your other trading methods and risk tolerance staying long vs selling may consider the distance to the 200sma below for the 3 min vs. the distance to the 200sma above for the 15minute

there is also the move above the near-term d/t line to consider for risk management or for the sell signal if a confirmed move below again develops

I am also looking at the 10day 5minute chart and several d/t lines that are relevant to today's price action

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the 15 minute is not showing great conviction when looking at the current shape of the 5sma, and the powerful move seen in the relative distance between the 5 sma and 15sma may be only good for the short term....it needs to prove itself now....giving it some more time is up to the patient or careful trader right now, depending on your preference

personally I am watching these two priorities in this order:

for a move back below the failed d/t line..in this case it is up to the trader to choose the 3 min, 15 min or 60 min for this interpretation..and its importance to judging whipsaw vs. the leading move

a move below intraday horizontal of 1465

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60 min chart is now on a preliminary buy signal as defined by 5 sma bullish cross of 15sma..preliminary because price and the two ma's remain below the 200sma on the 60 min

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end of day QQQQ final comment I made at the same site

final end of day QQQQ bottom post update re 15min chart
- Show quoted text -



15 min...remains on prelim buy with 200sma above both ma's and price..but is nearby about 8 cents above today's high..this could be easily taken out tomorrow...that is the risk... the GREATEST risk ...to shorting right now....I would not even consider it.

Edited by hiker, 31 July 2007 - 07:54 AM.

[hiker]

for clarity, my current positioning and trade updates will not follow today or rest of week likely for QQQQ and SPY...I am primarily a trader and not a poster..just taking some extra time to share one method of simple TA that does not rely on oscillators or FF crystal ball analysis. hope it gives some folks some ideas, either those that like to fade or those that like to look for a trend in the making at the early stages. my current posiition has changed since yest close, but I have not the inclinatiion for follow ups, which I consistently do here when post anything. just taking a breather..am actually heading out now for a 2 hour bike with my lab. this guy does some quality chart analysis and posted some fine work this a.m. at 9 a.m. ET - Technical Take section - Jim Schroeder, Briefing.com.

[Tor]

If fact AJC and Cramner for that matter have been right on the money these past months. Check back.

[traderpaul]

Thank you Paine Weber....I mean AJC

[Bob-C]

NM

Hi everyone, I was right on target!

Cheers,

Bob-C

Edited by Bob-C, 01 August 2007 - 12:18 AM.