9 replies to this topic

[blustar]

The 9.5-11 week cycle which runs 49-56 days is in day 45. Also, we have a Gann 8 day cycle top due today. My best guess is we bottom around day 54 or August 13. Targets around SPX cash 1433 and 4Q 46.70's.

The pattern looks very bullish into October with a QQQQ target of around 56.

An end of the year (October) crash would not surprise me with the SPX cash down 25-30% from its expected top in the mid 1600's.

Gap and crap? Could be. Watch out for the next couple of days!

The 9.5-11 week cycle which runs 48-56 days is in day 45. Also, we have a Gann 8 day cycle top due today. My best guess is we bottom around day 54 or August 13. Targets around SPX cash 1433 and 4Q 46.70's.

The pattern looks very bullish into October with a QQQQ target of around 56.

An end of the year (October) crash would not surprise me with the SPX cash down 25-30% from its expected top in the mid 1600's.

Gap and crap? Could be. Watch out for the next couple of days!

[calmcookie]

I agree ... can't see this just soaring up to new highs, but anythings possible.

[gorydog]

I agree ... can't see this just soaring up to new highs, but anythings possible.

Staying cautious here - but long looks to be the way
GD
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=3&i=p37823738793&a.png

[blustar]

My goof on the cycle, it runs 48-56 days not 49-56 days. The 4.5 year cycle is due closer to September and the 9 year cycle is due in October. The 18 month cycle is due Dec/Jan.

[NAV]

My goof on the cycle, it runs 48-56 days not 49-56 days. The 4.5 year cycle is due closer to September and the 9 year cycle is due in October. The 18 month cycle is due Dec/Jan.

Why is there a phase difference of 1 month between your 4.5 and 9 year cycle. Shoudn't they be nesting at the same time ?

[airedale88]

nav, whatever method he is using, it's not Hurst.

[bullishnot]

Thanks Blustar, agree more lows are coming.

[blustar]

Like all cycles that large there are variable tolerances. There is also an 18, 36 and 72 year cycle. 18 years from October 1989 is late October 2007 and was the mini-crash of late October 1989, so there are a nesting of lows coming up in October that I believe ties in with the 4.5 year cycle from March 2003, the 9 year from October 8 1998, the 13.5 from Feb 1994, the 18 year from late October 1989. There are different methodologies, so I do respect airdale's work . My work suggests lower prices to perhaps 1433 SPX cash, QQQQ 46.70ish in the next day or two and a retest by around August 13 very probable. At that time I will buy QQQQ October calls for a move to 56 by October 17/18. If August 13th is indeed the low, then I believe October 29/30 will be the next low, the next 9.5/11 week low.

[kc135a]

The 9.5-11 week cycle which runs 49-56 days is in day 45. Also, we have a Gann 8 day cycle top due today. My best guess is we bottom around day 54 or August 13. Targets around SPX cash 1433 and 4Q 46.70's.

The pattern looks very bullish into October with a QQQQ target of around 56.

FWIW I have a fib timing pattern that implies a higher high the first week of October followed by a 15-20% drop bottoming the week before Thanksgiving. After that it is to the moon up until the week of April 17th 2009.

May all be trash but that is what the methods are indicating.

KC

[blustar]

FWIW I have a fib timing pattern that implies a higher high the first week of October followed by a 15-20% drop bottoming the week before Thanksgiving. After that it is to the moon up until the week of April 17th 2009. May all be trash but that is what the methods are indicating. KC [/quote] I definitely believe that 2008 will be a banner year for the stock market and even into early 2009 where some longer term cycle tops are due. Ideally, the top comes in Jan/Feb 2009 with my work and this year a low late October instead of mid November. Usually, September/October is the low of major sell-offs (which I expect) due to the yearly tax selling cycle. The current trend channel suggests support around the 1160/70's on the SPX in October and a move above 1600 by October. The 18 month cycle is due around Dec/Jan, so we may see a great buying op in early/mid January, the next 80 week cycle low.