6 replies to this topic

[Rogerdodger]

Well, we touched the June lows which I thought last night would happen.
If you look to the far left of this weekly chart you'll see a similar white candle followed by a red candle the next week.
You also had one at the Feb/March '07 pullback.
It seems that there was lots of bullish talk this morning.
Cramer is really hot on the Dow 30 since most are sitting in cash and not affected by higher rates.

Well she held where she had to.
Bearish sentiment eased a bit tonight.
I imagine it should get up to the June low, but not much more this week.
We do have the "6 days of strength" beginning at this morning's open.
I still look for a retest, so it probably won't happen.

Climatic volume, down to horizontal support.
Looks a lot like the last week of Feb. http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p28233431990&a=31991787&r=8708.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 July 2007 - 10:05 AM.

[hiker]

is this a sign for today only or for longer? what IBM 60 min and daily are revealing with the near-term IBM support t/l's (two) untested for quite some time?- iffy looking action today and prior 4 days on the IBM 15 min and 60 min today represents first daily move below the 15day sma since July 2...for now, the 5day sma remains above the 15day sma, but shape of 5-day sma gives some credibility to an expectation for the potential of convergence of the two moving averages just something I am watching for trade decisions relative to the broader market --------- regarding SPY daily..the 7/27 low was at the 200day sma...ck out the high of today relative to the retrace % of the move down from 156 high on July 17 to 145.05 low on July 27th. Could this bounce end right here right now..or will today's R failure at 148.80 need to be retested or see an upside break?

Edited by hiker, 31 July 2007 - 09:36 AM.

[Rogerdodger]

I agree with Airedale's plan to get in somewhere soon. I can't ignore that volume spike last week. It was the biggest volume in 4 1/2 years. Think cycle. I would have liked to see sentiment much more bearish than it was. I don't know if the market can make a lower low, but if we got near to one it would surely bring out da bears. I guess you could have a stop a few %below the lows. They have outlawed 10% corrections. With yesterday's rally plus today's, we only recovered the last 25 minutes of Friday's (head-fake) selling. So far today there is only very muted tick. PS: If we can close near the highs today we might see a big flip-flop in sentiment which would be followed by selling. TWT

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 July 2007 - 09:49 AM.

[hiker]

10% would take SPX to about 1400 would it not? my guess is it is not outlawed this time. I do not agree with anyone. trading this based on very simple TA...simple ma's and horizontals is my style in volatile markets...otherwise, do not have the gumption to go for the entire move and take the early signals...and swing quickly at the intraswing highs and lows.... we are headed lower right NOW...NOW is what matters..I always vote for making money NOW vs. later

[Rogerdodger]

1400 is a very obvious level with a round number and horizontal support. Near 1440 is the 61.8% level. NOW is important except that I mostly have to swing trade because of fund restrictions. ;-(

Edited by Rogerdodger, 31 July 2007 - 09:55 AM.

[hiker]

20month ema and 15month sma would still be in "support" mode and below 1400 for a few days I have an SPX cash horizontal drawn at 1478 FWIW relative to this bounce taking it slightly above right now and just barely above the 200sma on the 1 minute 1484 is R1 closing basis yest

Edited by hiker, 31 July 2007 - 10:08 AM.

[hiker]

IBM has moved back up above 200sma on 1 min..3min 200sma is 113.80 plus