2 replies to this topic

[VolPivots]

SPY gap magnet 142.3 - 142.9

A few charts from the TA arsenal

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NAMO&p=D&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p32209562612&a=77448291&r=9372.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYHGH&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p96184184708&a=79051277&r=4953.png

[beta]

Great charts, MN. I recall your timely "heads up" warning early last week.

What strikes me looking at your annotations is how the current period seems most analogous to the April '00 period you've labelled "Y2K" on your chart.

At that April '00 low, the same extreme divergence between price and $NAMO showed up, just like now.

(This may answer a question I'd been wondering about, i.e. why such momentum indicators appear to work well within a secular trend, but do not seem reliable indicators for changes in trend.

Thanks again.

Edited by beta, 01 August 2007 - 01:39 AM.

[VolPivots]

Great charts, MN. I recall your timely "heads up" warning early last week.

What strikes me looking at your annotations is how the current period seems most analogous to the April '00 period you've labelled "Y2K" on your chart.

At that April '00 low, the same extreme divergence between price and $NAMO showed up, just like now.

(This may answer a question I'd been wondering about, i.e. why such momentum indicators appear to work well within a secular trend, but do not seem reliable indicators for changes in trend.

Thanks again.

Thx. Hadn't noticed that, but good observation. I don't yet think we put in a major top, but we've had an extremely long period of low volatility in both stocks and bonds and a major bear void for stocks, so I'm guessing this is the one that shakes everyone out and wipes out excess speculation....James Quillian showed a margin chart recently highlighting all that gearing. Unwinding takes time.....

GT and GL