9 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Just how many investors cry at the bull market tops "Give me a 5% correction and i promise, i will buy it with both the hands". When those corrections come to pass, "It's too risky...i am out... cash is safe...don't like bloody hands....it's blosomming into a crash". Emotions are one thing, reality is another. That's why it's important to assess early in the game what timeframe one would want to trade. I personally hate open ended risk and hence i cannot be a good IT trader. But if one puts things in perspective, if one is trading the IT timeframe, throwing in 20% of the account at every 2% down from here doesn't not seem like a bad idea. Once the full position is built, just throw in a 5% stop below one's average price. It's seems rational and easy, but very few are capable of executing it. The rest are deers in headlights.....Call me one of those deers. That's why i found my niche and trade the hourly swings. No overnight positions in a volatile market like this for me. My trading doesn't care if it's a crises or panic or contagion. It's simple. In a beartrend - Buy a hourly buy. Short a continuation sell. In a bulltrend - Short a hourly sell. Buy a continuation buy. and sleep well at night ! One of these days, the globex lows will mark the lows which will never be seen again in the day session. Is that day today ? I have no idea. Looking at the weekly charts, it appears, we may require at least another retest of today's lows. Unless we see a 60 point rally in the next 3 days, it's impossible for the Weekly CCI to hook up. Barring that, we would still remain on a weekly sell, at the end of the week. The implication is a retest will be in order next week to test this weeks lows. Whether that retest will be in the form of a higher low or lower low, remains to be seen. As for a crash, i have studied momentum signatures of various crashes and as far as my study goes, i am not worried about a crash here. If it does, i will learn something new..... Flat and looking for a hourly buy.

[rkd80]

Nav,

Are you impressed by the overnight reversal. I believe you once mentioned that when futures turn around like that for a few days straight that it is a SOS. Maybe it wasnt you...?

rkd

Just how many investors cry at the bull market tops "Give me a 5% correction and i promise, i will buy it with both the hands". When those corrections come to pass, "It's too risky...i am out... cash is safe...don't like bloody hands....it's blosomming into a crash". Emotions are one thing, reality is another. That's why it's important to assess early in the game what timeframe one would want to trade. I personally hate open ended risk and hence i cannot be a good IT trader.

But if one puts things in perspective, if one is trading the IT timeframe, throwing in 20% of the account at every 2% down from here doesn't not seem like a bad idea. Once the full position is built, just throw in a 5% stop below one's average price. It's seems rational and easy, but very few are capable of executing it. The rest are deers in headlights.....Call me one of those deers. That's why i found my niche and trade the hourly swings. No overnight positions in a volatile market like this for me. My trading doesn't care if it's a crises or panic or contagion.

It's simple.

In a beartrend - Buy a hourly buy. Short a continuation sell.
In a bulltrend - Short a hourly sell. Buy a continuation buy.

and sleep well at night !


One of these days, the globex lows will mark the lows which will never be seen again in the day session. Is that day today ? I have no idea. Looking at the weekly charts, it appears, we may require at least another retest of today's lows. Unless we see a 60 point rally in the next 3 days, it's impossible for the Weekly CCI to hook up. Barring that, we would still remain on a weekly sell, at the end of the week. The implication is a retest will be in order next week to test this weeks lows. Whether that retest will be in the form of a higher low or lower low, remains to be seen. As for a crash, i have studied momentum signatures of various crashes and as far as my study goes, i am not worried about a crash here. If it does, i will learn something new.....


Flat and looking for a hourly buy.

[hiker]

NAV...if one were to execute such a strategy..a potential to keep in mind is shown below....for entering when risk management may be optimal: March low bottom of the 4-yr channel bottom of the 24-year channel..(log chart) this has been borrowed from another "site" and poster, who receives credit for this

Edited by hiker, 01 August 2007 - 08:19 AM.

[Tor]

Just how many investors cry at the bull market tops "Give me a 5% correction and i promise, i will buy it with both the hands". When those corrections come to pass, "It's too risky...i am out... cash is safe...don't like bloody hands....it's blosomming into a crash". Emotions are one thing, reality is another. That's why it's important to assess early in the game what timeframe one would want to trade. I personally hate open ended risk and hence i cannot be a good IT trader.

But if one puts things in perspective, if one is trading the IT timeframe, throwing in 20% of the account at every 2% down from here doesn't not seem like a bad idea. Once the full position is built, just throw in a 5% stop below one's average price. It's seems rational and easy, but very few are capable of executing it. The rest are deers in headlights.....Call me one of those deers. That's why i found my niche and trade the hourly swings. No overnight positions in a volatile market like this for me. My trading doesn't care if it's a crises or panic or contagion.

It's simple.

In a beartrend - Buy a hourly buy. Short a continuation sell.
In a bulltrend - Short a hourly sell. Buy a continuation buy.

and sleep well at night !


One of these days, the globex lows will mark the lows which will never be seen again in the day session. Is that day today ? I have no idea. Looking at the weekly charts, it appears, we may require at least another retest of today's lows. Unless we see a 60 point rally in the next 3 days, it's impossible for the Weekly CCI to hook up. Barring that, we would still remain on a weekly sell, at the end of the week. The implication is a retest will be in order next week to test this weeks lows. Whether that retest will be in the form of a higher low or lower low, remains to be seen. As for a crash, i have studied momentum signatures of various crashes and as far as my study goes, i am not worried about a crash here. If it does, i will learn something new.....


Flat and looking for a hourly buy.

NAV do you have any LT view bull or bear?
Thanks.

[NAV]

Nav,

Are you impressed by the overnight reversal. I believe you once mentioned that when futures turn around like that for a few days straight that it is a SOS. Maybe it wasnt you...?

rkd

Just how many investors cry at the bull market tops "Give me a 5% correction and i promise, i will buy it with both the hands". When those corrections come to pass, "It's too risky...i am out... cash is safe...don't like bloody hands....it's blosomming into a crash". Emotions are one thing, reality is another. That's why it's important to assess early in the game what timeframe one would want to trade. I personally hate open ended risk and hence i cannot be a good IT trader.

But if one puts things in perspective, if one is trading the IT timeframe, throwing in 20% of the account at every 2% down from here doesn't not seem like a bad idea. Once the full position is built, just throw in a 5% stop below one's average price. It's seems rational and easy, but very few are capable of executing it. The rest are deers in headlights.....Call me one of those deers. That's why i found my niche and trade the hourly swings. No overnight positions in a volatile market like this for me. My trading doesn't care if it's a crises or panic or contagion.

It's simple.

In a beartrend - Buy a hourly buy. Short a continuation sell.
In a bulltrend - Short a hourly sell. Buy a continuation buy.

and sleep well at night !


One of these days, the globex lows will mark the lows which will never be seen again in the day session. Is that day today ? I have no idea. Looking at the weekly charts, it appears, we may require at least another retest of today's lows. Unless we see a 60 point rally in the next 3 days, it's impossible for the Weekly CCI to hook up. Barring that, we would still remain on a weekly sell, at the end of the week. The implication is a retest will be in order next week to test this weeks lows. Whether that retest will be in the form of a higher low or lower low, remains to be seen. As for a crash, i have studied momentum signatures of various crashes and as far as my study goes, i am not worried about a crash here. If it does, i will learn something new.....


Flat and looking for a hourly buy.

I will be impressed if we hold ES 1448.50 during the first hour of trading and the hourly momentum turns up.

[CAzzaro]

Why aren't you taking your continuation sells?

[NAV]

Just how many investors cry at the bull market tops "Give me a 5% correction and i promise, i will buy it with both the hands". When those corrections come to pass, "It's too risky...i am out... cash is safe...don't like bloody hands....it's blosomming into a crash". Emotions are one thing, reality is another. That's why it's important to assess early in the game what timeframe one would want to trade. I personally hate open ended risk and hence i cannot be a good IT trader.

But if one puts things in perspective, if one is trading the IT timeframe, throwing in 20% of the account at every 2% down from here doesn't not seem like a bad idea. Once the full position is built, just throw in a 5% stop below one's average price. It's seems rational and easy, but very few are capable of executing it. The rest are deers in headlights.....Call me one of those deers. That's why i found my niche and trade the hourly swings. No overnight positions in a volatile market like this for me. My trading doesn't care if it's a crises or panic or contagion.

It's simple.

In a beartrend - Buy a hourly buy. Short a continuation sell.
In a bulltrend - Short a hourly sell. Buy a continuation buy.

and sleep well at night !


One of these days, the globex lows will mark the lows which will never be seen again in the day session. Is that day today ? I have no idea. Looking at the weekly charts, it appears, we may require at least another retest of today's lows. Unless we see a 60 point rally in the next 3 days, it's impossible for the Weekly CCI to hook up. Barring that, we would still remain on a weekly sell, at the end of the week. The implication is a retest will be in order next week to test this weeks lows. Whether that retest will be in the form of a higher low or lower low, remains to be seen. As for a crash, i have studied momentum signatures of various crashes and as far as my study goes, i am not worried about a crash here. If it does, i will learn something new.....


Flat and looking for a hourly buy.

NAV do you have any LT view bull or bear?
Thanks.

It's on my blog

http://nav-ta.blogsp...15_archive.html

I still have no changes to the count presented there. Still expecting a move to SPX 1600-1620, before the X-wave starts. This count is valid as long as we hold above SPX cash 1408. Below that, then we are already in the X-wave that i have shown there. Too early to say which one it is.

Why aren't you taking your continuation sells?

It only shows that you are not following my posts. What was that short yesterday i took at 1486.50 all about ? It was a continuation sell. I got stopped out out on that becuase i tried to get cute on trailing my stops. But that's another matter. I take all signals.

[CAzzaro]

I saw that trade. I thought you had over ridden the trade because it "did not feel right", which was your comment at the time, making it sound like you exercised discretion over some trades.

[NAV]

I saw that trade. I thought you had over ridden the trade because it "did not feel right", which was your comment at the time, making it sound like you exercised discretion over some trades.

Yes, as a matter of fact i did. I paid the price for doing it.

Edited by NAV, 01 August 2007 - 09:02 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Nav, that looked like one of MY mistakes! I used to fine tune myself out of about half my big winners right before they became. Occasionally turning what would a big winner into a loser was another "special" skill I had. In fact, I've probably still got those skills. I just try not to use them!