9 replies to this topic

[hiker]

I have weakening pattern returns to neutral near 1473/74..about where SPY is now trading in premarket....advance has stalled there

R, closing basis yest, SPX cash

1470
1474
1479
1488

what happens now?

1484 or so is a .382 retrace of the decline we just had from 1555 to 1439....and 1484 to 1488 horizontal zone is where June lows are...so two data points say 1484 to 1488 could cap a bounce (btw, yesterday high reached just prior to close was a .25 retrace of the 116 point decline off the 1555 July high)

posted above last night in separate thread here...only a potential...some think we are going back to 1555 minimum..I am playing it one step at a time...came into today flat and flexible, though I have been active this a.m.

last night post with chart, courtesy of sd..thanks...lightening storm took me offline

http://www.traders-t...showtopic=73748

Edited by hiker, 02 August 2007 - 08:11 AM.

[hiker]

my trading today will key off the 13 min and 60 min chart to determine the price structure that may be developing from yesterday's .25 retrace....I am not counting on anything either way right now...it will unfold and provide the pattern following the early a.m. action what to look for in the pattern is clear...lows above lows, and higher highs as the day progresses...all relative to yesterday ....failure of this to occur will be obvious in the day's pattern

[skyymaster]

my trading today will key off the 13 min and 60 min chart to determine the price structure that may be developing from yesterday's .25 retrace....I am not counting on anything either way right now...it will unfold and provide the pattern following the early a.m. action

what to look for in the pattern is clear...lows above lows, and higher highs as the day progresses...all relative to yesterday ....failure of this to occur will be obvious in the day's pattern

Thank you Hiker, keep us posted.

[hiker]

short QQQQ 48.19 and .20...stop is 6 and 7 cents higher..R is 48.25/31

short QQQQ 48.19 and .20...stop is 6 and 7 cents higher..R is 48.25/31

failed d/t line is the risk to this short...a successful backtest may be likely

tried to post this real time but for some reason post took about 5+ minutes to go through

at time of short entry the 5 and 15sma on 3min chart incl extended sessions were converging

Edited by hiker, 02 August 2007 - 08:55 AM.

[hiker]

qqqq approaching convergence of 5 and 15sma's on 15min incl extended sessions ..price now below both and below the 200sma on 15min

[hiker]

QQQQ 200sma on 3 min resides below price lows and resides above next support below yest close supports 47.60 47.53 47.30 just now turned red, so watch price relative to 200sma on 3 min for exit or follow through decline

[hiker]

not yet able to move below the 3 min 200sma, though the 5 and 15sma's on the 3min have been pointing down since the 9:42ET candle high...pointing down during most of the day, though whipsaw in their configuration 15min remains on a confirmed sell today with price and othe MA's below the 200sma on 15min, for some of the day anyway and now

Edited by hiker, 02 August 2007 - 10:06 AM.

[hiker]

SPY move to test 1460 may be of importance if the bounce turns into revealing a launch from 1460 area...still need to clear yest close and 1470 above...3min SPX shows 5 and 15sma's converging while price is attempting to turn...the 200sma on 3min spx remains below both the MA's and price, so 3min remains on confirmed 3min chart BUY with whipsaw action today in the two MA's and their crossovers..based on all this, I closed all shorts on this downside test..and flipped long with a tight leash on those longs 1454 SPX cash could still be the ideal bottom picking long entry, but it is better to simply pick the first turn when it happens based on the signals...so, the 13min 15min and 60 min still need to improve in their signal strength and bulls are facing R ahead..let's see if something happens besides consolidation which is OK as long as 1460 and 1454 SPX cash hold up today's intraday d/t line on 3 min SPX has failed on this turn...backtest or move below coming? this is real iffy looking

Edited by hiker, 02 August 2007 - 10:34 AM.

[hiker]

QQQQ R 48.25 now price is .27 48.31 48.60 48.95

[hiker]

1473.32 high just now is so close to neutrality no. I have posted last two days here and elsewhere...



1473.25 denleo can tell you that is what is in the TW chat transcript...

I am flat everything now...will give this some time

see 7/31 transcript

http://www.websiteto...618?forum=21252