7 replies to this topic

[ogm]

what a slaughter. I'm still 75% long, will buy more on Monday, into the Fed. Nice prices.

[hiker]

to go against price action with that much of your trading acct takes some countertrend conviction. hope this turns out to bounce from here. just curious, what idea do you have for realistic move back up on SPX do you expect for the predicted advance into the Fed....your FF for the rally target? thanks, and have a good weekend. I am mostly flat. this daytrading is more work, than swing trading but having fun is more important to my sustained trading than anything else...I never have fun when I see drawdowns...BSC was great fun today! btw, FCX closed lower than the recent swing low...low volume daily candle though..copper hit something like 6 week lows early today.

Edited by hiker, 03 August 2007 - 03:25 PM.

[rkd80]

what a slaughter. I'm still 75% long, will buy more on Monday, into the Fed. Nice prices.

you have a high tolerance ogm, i got stopped out of every long.

I am still bullish on the ST though, because a TRIN reading of above 2 for the 4th time in a week is a rare occurence. The A/D got decimated today as can be seen by the RUT and ER2 - what a beating they took.

Er2 off 3.6%!

The week closed on it's lowest point which is dissapointing, as the NYHL:NYTOT weekly ratio indicator suggested that last week was it. I am concerned that this might be an ominous sign when such reliable indicators fail.

back to the drawing boards.

[ogm]

to go against price action with that much of your trading acct takes some countertrend conviction.

hope this turns out to bounce from here.

just curious, what idea do you have for realistic move back up on SPX do you expect for the predicted advance into the Fed....your FF for the rally target?

thanks, and have a good weekend. I am mostly flat. this daytrading is more work, than swing trading but having fun is more important to my sustained trading than anything else...I never have fun when I see drawdowns...BSC was great fun today! btw, FCX closed lower than the recent swing low...low volume daily candle though..copper hit something like 6 week lows early today.

I'm mostly buying income paying funds/securities

I posted a whole list of what I was buying. Also adding a little bit to Clenatech. Growth there is far from over. Very few other things outside of those areas. AKAM , TKC, WDC, AMX.

Next on my list to buy are banks. They are starting to look really good with rather low price/book and solid dividends. I'm not very worried about buying banks here for longer term.

I'm not really playing the indexes , except for some daytrading. I think Indexes will be volatile and probably stuck in some wide range. Don't see any super bull market here.

But the income payers are holding up rather well... take a look at AGD, EEF, ERH, CHI, SGL, GDF, bought NRO today too...

Rather nominal losses in today's carnage. Solar stuff got hurt though. I bought LDK today around 37.

I think companies like LDK and AKAM don't deserve to be massacred like this.

Plus its a good environment to write calls on volatile stuff. Very good premiums. So I'm buying long and selling OTM calls. Sometimes ITM calls. gives me a very good cushion.

Look at BSC for example.... I sold 110 calls on half position today for 8 bucks, after I bought a stock at 107.8.... so the cushion is all the way under 100 for me. And I'll make money anywhere above 100.

Edited by ogm, 03 August 2007 - 03:36 PM.

[arbman]

ogm, this is shaping up into a very major correction so far and very fast too. The indicators that worked over the past 3 years will have really hard time here, now the longer term moving averages will start to turn down...

[ogm]

ogm, this is shaping up into a very major correction so far and very fast too. The indicators that worked over the past 3 years will have really hard time here, now the longer term moving averages will start to turn down...

I agree, thats why I'm not relying on indicators here. More on fundamentals.

Today's job report pretty much said.. recession and global debt market implosion.
At the same time... stuff that pays dividends will hold up much better in this environment.

I was short all those financials in the begining as you know, but I covered, and think its not worth it to be short them here. Daily charts are starting to look very oversold, and valuations came in into very reasonable range. Especialy on banks.


those 5+% dividends will help em out a lot in this correction.


But I have to admit, this does look bad. I was thinking end of the world as we know it thoughts today
Then I looked at $WPCVE at 2.05 and decided that it may not be over just yet

[arbman]

ogm, I think this will turn into the first 10% correction at least by the time all said and done. It can bounce here since the extremes are hit though. I actually do expect a bounce, but I will not bottom pick, I will wait until the market gives us more than 30-min short squeezes...

[relax]

agree kisa i guess if one wants to be really safe, one could wait for those three white candles key levels were definitely broken today gann august 8 date coming up next week - maybe that will THE date for a turn