15 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

Maybe...Where ever the bottom is....I agree with Nav...it's going to be a major bottom...

won't get lost in all this fear.... :wink:

Friday could have been the wash out...although could also be just the 3rd wave of an ED. I like the divergence on the hourly however with three drives to a bottom.
NDX weekly may only be testing top of channel and possible neckline. . . measured move on either an inverted H&S or channel breakout are both 2300 area. Definite areas that have to hold on these charts.


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[airedale88]

tea, interesting divergence on NYSE 52 wk lows. less than 1/2 the # of stocks making new lows friday vs earlier as NYSE fell to new lows it suggests they were throwing away the worst performers, creating large enough price drops on a smaller number of stocks to knock NYSE to new lows.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYLOW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t37385008780&r=8535.png .

[eminimee]

Agreed Airedale...oh...and I should have said... "I agree with Nav AND Airedale (amongst others) that what ever bottom we get will be a major bottom lol"

Edited by Teaparty, 04 August 2007 - 07:44 AM.

[ogm]

Agreed Airedale...oh...and I should have said...

"I agree with Nav AND Airedale (amongst others) that what ever bottom we get will be a major bottom lol"

I think it will be only IT bottom, and the market will continue down after this as the problems keep cascading.
I think the major bottom will be at the nest of those 9 year cycle lows. 4.5 years from now.
This 4.5 year cycle will be nothing to write home about, IMO.
The best case scenario is a flat wide range. Between 1250 and 1500 or so.
You don't even want to know what the worst case scenario is

Edited by ogm, 04 August 2007 - 08:35 AM.

[airedale88]

Agreed Airedale...oh...and I should have said...

"I agree with Nav AND Airedale (amongst others) that what ever bottom we get will be a major bottom lol"

I think it will be only IT bottom, and the market will continue down after this as the problems keep cascading.
I think the major bottom will be at the nest of those 9 year cycle lows. 4.5 years from now.
This 4.5 year cycle will be nothing to write home about, IMO.
The best case scenario is a flat wide range. Between 1250 and 1500 or so.
You don't even want to know what the worst case scenario is

ogm, hurst cycle theory would indicate this 2nd 4.5 yr cycle in the 9 yr cycle will make a higher high. the 1st 4.5 yr cycle pushed higher until just a few weeks before it's bottom was due, that's called high right translation of a cycle. for that to occur, the sum of cyclic trends larger than the 4.5 yr cycle must be very strong up.

[Russ]

Airedale wrote: "hurst cycle theory would indicate this 2nd 4.5 yr cycle in the 9 yr cycle will make a higher high. the 1st 4.5 yr cycle pushed higher until just a few weeks before it's bottom was due, that's called high right translation of a cycle. for that to occur, the sum of cyclic trends larger than the 4.5 yr cycle must be very strong up."

The battle of the cycles...it is an odd concept that different cycles are pushing and pulling the buying and selling of millions of people.

[Frac_Man]

Looking at this chart I can see the long term fractal <<<< I don't think we hit a bottom Yet

Maybe...Where ever the bottom is....I agree with Nav...it's going to be a major bottom...

won't get lost in all this fear.... :wink:

Friday could have been the wash out...although could also be just the 3rd wave of an ED. I like the divergence on the hourly however with three drives to a bottom.
NDX weekly may only be testing top of channel and possible neckline. . . measured move on either an inverted H&S or channel breakout are both 2300 area. Definite areas that have to hold on these charts.


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[ken29]

If the Friday's low is a major bottom for the next 3 months, I'll shave my head...........

[arbman]

You guys are not looking at the most important indicator that affects the financials which are the prime cause of this decline.

The credit spreads also started to come down despite the negative action, the price action started to look very similar to the April 2005 low now with this and new lows divergence...

The market is cash deficient at the moment visible in the credit growth in the commercials banks I posted earlier, so I do not expect a slingshot recovery to the new highs. The market will stay in a trading range for months, imho. However, the short interest is growing so much that any squeeze is likely to be extremely fast...



- kisa

[SemiBizz]

Board is too bullish, the complexion of this market changed two weeks ago, Bull market has trained traders to compete for the lowest prices before they were whisked off to new highs.. All you had to do was go long, if you paid too much eventually the bull market bailed you out, so why not buy?... Bottom? You don't need to worry about bottom now... Bottom is now a plateau, not a "V". I wonder how long it will be before the obsession changes to picking the top, like it was in June... when the board had decided that enough was enough and that a retracement was certain to come? Grab a piece of that Inverted V when you can, because you will get ALL DAY to cover.