Wash out low Friday?
#1
Posted 04 August 2007 - 06:48 AM
won't get lost in all this fear.... :wink:
Friday could have been the wash out...although could also be just the 3rd wave of an ED. I like the divergence on the hourly however with three drives to a bottom.
NDX weekly may only be testing top of channel and possible neckline. . . measured move on either an inverted H&S or channel breakout are both 2300 area. Definite areas that have to hold on these charts.
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#2
Posted 04 August 2007 - 07:28 AM
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYLOW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t37385008780&r=8535.png .
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#3
Posted 04 August 2007 - 07:43 AM
Edited by Teaparty, 04 August 2007 - 07:44 AM.
#4
Posted 04 August 2007 - 08:34 AM
Agreed Airedale...oh...and I should have said...
"I agree with Nav AND Airedale (amongst others) that what ever bottom we get will be a major bottom lol"
I think it will be only IT bottom, and the market will continue down after this as the problems keep cascading.
I think the major bottom will be at the nest of those 9 year cycle lows. 4.5 years from now.
This 4.5 year cycle will be nothing to write home about, IMO.
The best case scenario is a flat wide range. Between 1250 and 1500 or so.
You don't even want to know what the worst case scenario is
Edited by ogm, 04 August 2007 - 08:35 AM.
#5
Posted 04 August 2007 - 09:29 AM
Agreed Airedale...oh...and I should have said...
"I agree with Nav AND Airedale (amongst others) that what ever bottom we get will be a major bottom lol"
I think it will be only IT bottom, and the market will continue down after this as the problems keep cascading.
I think the major bottom will be at the nest of those 9 year cycle lows. 4.5 years from now.
This 4.5 year cycle will be nothing to write home about, IMO.
The best case scenario is a flat wide range. Between 1250 and 1500 or so.
You don't even want to know what the worst case scenario is
ogm, hurst cycle theory would indicate this 2nd 4.5 yr cycle in the 9 yr cycle will make a higher high. the 1st 4.5 yr cycle pushed higher until just a few weeks before it's bottom was due, that's called high right translation of a cycle. for that to occur, the sum of cyclic trends larger than the 4.5 yr cycle must be very strong up.
Outspeaks the Squire, "Give room, I pray,
And hie the terriers in;
The warriors of the fight are they,
And every fight they win".
Ring-Ouzel, England
#6
Posted 04 August 2007 - 10:35 AM
Airedale wrote: "hurst cycle theory would indicate this 2nd 4.5 yr cycle in the 9 yr cycle will make a higher high. the 1st 4.5 yr cycle pushed higher until just a few weeks before it's bottom was due, that's called high right translation of a cycle. for that to occur, the sum of cyclic trends larger than the 4.5 yr cycle must be very strong up."
The battle of the cycles...it is an odd concept that different cycles are pushing and pulling the buying and selling of millions of people.
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#7
Posted 04 August 2007 - 10:50 AM
Maybe...Where ever the bottom is....I agree with Nav...it's going to be a major bottom...
won't get lost in all this fear.... :wink:
Friday could have been the wash out...although could also be just the 3rd wave of an ED. I like the divergence on the hourly however with three drives to a bottom.
NDX weekly may only be testing top of channel and possible neckline. . . measured move on either an inverted H&S or channel breakout are both 2300 area. Definite areas that have to hold on these charts.
Click Here to see Full Sized Image
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#8
Posted 04 August 2007 - 11:03 AM
#9
Posted 04 August 2007 - 11:33 AM
The credit spreads also started to come down despite the negative action, the price action started to look very similar to the April 2005 low now with this and new lows divergence...
The market is cash deficient at the moment visible in the credit growth in the commercials banks I posted earlier, so I do not expect a slingshot recovery to the new highs. The market will stay in a trading range for months, imho. However, the short interest is growing so much that any squeeze is likely to be extremely fast...
- kisa
#10
Posted 04 August 2007 - 11:45 AM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
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