3 replies to this topic

[Sentient Being]

Are you seeing extreme readings telling you a serious bottom is taking place? I guess that's what I would ask of those looking for a bottom here, or looking for a bottom yet to come. The reason I ask is because I have a "combination" tool at home that I've used sometimes to look at the S&P 500. Its made up of things like the AD line, new highs, new lows, volume and I forget what else. The most telling signals in a downtrend are very extreme readings which are always a signal of a serious bottom going in. You don't always get a signal of such magnitude when big bottoms go in, but when you do get one it seems to be worth playing. As I can recall, that bottom may come weeks AFTER the reading, but the reading is important because it means the bottom is near, not years away. In the few times it's signaled, you can draw a short term trend line and buy if it crosses the existing downtrend. I'm not seeing that now. To me, this may be a bottom, but it's not a massive bottom created by extreme readings at the end of a psychologically serious downtrend. I don't think we are seeing the bottoming action that you get at a serious, long term, change of trend that has a large emotional impact on the market. I'm thinking that quite possibly, either the long term trend is still up, or we have some serious downside work to go yet, before we put in a bottom that could give off extreme readings I'm looking for. Hey, there you go, we are going up or down!

Edited by Sentient Being, 04 August 2007 - 01:31 PM.

[relax]

hehe, yeah up or down and who knows the future - even the Fed don't but I mean I can only agree that nothing has been settled yet nonetheless seems like things could get much worse later on - there are currently a lot of extreme readings as you point out - could be seen bullish, but also indicates that sellers are getting their way more than previously remember reading a good indicator of a bottom five days after having made the bottom you should see a move up of over 1.6 per cent, that would indicate that the bottom was in

[OEXCHAOS]

You've got some extreme sentiment, but not what I'd need to be looking for a sustainable rally. Still, when you get moves like this, you get some hellish bounces. I think that the no-uptick rule is behind some of this selling, and I also think that it's going to fuel a hellish rally, too. Probably "out of nowhere". My volume work has some appreciably lower targets, too. My thinking is, down early, up hard, then chop, then down again. We'll have to see. Mark

[mss]

Not thru with weekend data work, but NOTHING so far suggests anything more than a tradable bottom, or I should say a bouncing decline at the present. This could change after Monday, but as I posted the other day we will have lots of chop till it ID'S a bottom somewhere around 1421 at present. That also could become a "slowing" point. Too many things have not yet signaled a IT trend change. The 5/21 ratio has just nosed below "0" but the 8/34 is not close, and the list goes on. Will post some work when finished, on the Swing Waves Board tonight or Sunday afternoon. mss