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[Russ]

I posted this Housing Index chart last Feb and my concerns were dismissed by da_cheif who said it was a minor issue...well its getting bigger and the last estimate I heard is that is could end up being a $150 Billion dollar problem. Compare that to the 1998 debacle for long term capital which was only about $3 Billion.

The Dow Transports have broken major support from 2003, serious business is developing here and it does not look good at all. I have two forecasts for major lows in the transports and housing index using my oscillator. From what I can see any rally near term is not going to last. I don't see how Airedale's cycle work can be correct now with the Russell 2000 and the Transports breaking down.

[Russ]

Given that the transports and russell 2k have broken support it is now quite doubtful that spx is going to be able to break above the 2000 high, could a huge M top be happening in the spx with the year 2000 being the left part of the M? If by some miracle spx breaks through then all bets are off but transport and R2K are unlikely to go back above those up trendlines soon.

Edited by Russ, 04 August 2007 - 11:29 PM.