3 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

TheStreet.com poll is usually very robust. Like, 1000-2000+ responses, tyically. Low participation might be 700 votes over the past 4 months. Today, we've got about 239. With all the volatility, I'd have expected 2000 or more. I'd say that a bunch of Bulls are caught like deer in the headlights and they are evading what's going on in their portfolios this weekend. To my thinking, since there aren't a ton of Bears (54% Bears, still 30% Bulls) in that poll, we've got more pain coming until they capitulate. Now, the evasion is, I think suggestive of a low soon, but very near term, maybe we've got more selling ahead. Mark

[ogm]

Yes, we probably have a flush coming after the Fed. Too much hope that the Fed will say something to reduce the fears. VIX 40, as I said But... that flush should make a good bottom for quite a while. A lot of fear, uncertainty already. Then we'll probably churn for quite a while, before rallying. A good 2-3 weeks of churn. I do think that the next rally should be sold, though.. as we'll probably make lower lows.

Edited by ogm, 05 August 2007 - 01:49 PM.

[selecto]

Mark, I don't know if you are familar with the work of Steve Pfiffner "Madrone" who used to post Gartley geometry on Avid and Cystal Ball. He is famous for the expression: "First the pattern, then the news." By all accounts, he was as good as Gartley gets, which can be breathtaking at times. He did it all by hand. There is some software about, but it is no where as good as the eye of a journeyman welder. So, my momentum "patterns"(internals and price) suggest that the "news" Tuesday will be perceived as good. Ben has to at least throw the pack a crumb in here, and will certainally not do anything market-naughty. We are so zoned everywhere that I think the "risk" is to the upside.

[selecto]

Monday PM - I am considerably less confident this evening and although profitably long from today, I doubt that I will hold long to the announcement. 60 min mo getting zoned, internals won't turn decidedly.