15 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

There's LT traders and there's ST traders. LT traders are still bullish. In an IT sense, that's bearish. ST traders are very bearish. In a ST sense, that's bullish. Rydex traders dumped a bunch of cash out from bull funds into bear funds friday. P/C spiked, and all the damage was done in the last few hours of the trade. Technically very oversold conditions must now be relieved at the expense of those who shorted up the @ss friday because they didn't want to hold over the weekend. Now that the world didn't come to an end on sunday, they'll be buying back monday, in anticipation of helicopter ben ready to dump wads of cash into the market. I remain bullish going into wednesday, and I suspect wednesday's announcement will take us above Dow 13,500. I don't expect rate cuts, I expect some hope given to bulls that a rate cut MAYBE coming. 3 up days, perhaps 4, all next week.

[arbman]

Fed is announcing on Tuesday Aug 7th, fyi... This is why I bought the calls on Friday, there is no time to decline here... Market showed the Fed who is the boss and I bet the Fed is listening...

[dcengr]

Fed is announcing on Tuesday Aug 7th, fyi...

This is why I bought the calls on Friday, there is no time to decline here...


Market showed the Fed who is the boss and I bet the Fed is listening...

That doesn't change my time table. Its up most of next week, IMO. There's a very small chance, however, that we fail to bounce monday and take a major dive on announcement. That would be pretty unprecedented, and benny would be hung out to dry. It would also happen if Ben's scorch plans were overcome by terrorists or attack on/by Iran. I give those low odds.

[Frac_Man]

agree, a rally into mid August

There's LT traders and there's ST traders.

LT traders are still bullish. In an IT sense, that's bearish.

ST traders are very bearish. In a ST sense, that's bullish.

Rydex traders dumped a bunch of cash out from bull funds into bear funds friday. P/C spiked, and all the damage was done in the last few hours of the trade.

Technically very oversold conditions must now be relieved at the expense of those who shorted up the @ss friday because they didn't want to hold over the weekend.

Now that the world didn't come to an end on sunday, they'll be buying back monday, in anticipation of helicopter ben ready to dump wads of cash into the market.

I remain bullish going into wednesday, and I suspect wednesday's announcement will take us above Dow 13,500.

I don't expect rate cuts, I expect some hope given to bulls that a rate cut MAYBE coming. 3 up days, perhaps 4, all next week.

[pdx5]

But I thought Benny's job description says 1. Guard against inflation 2. Defend the dollar 3. Protect jobs Nowhere I have heard he has to support the stock market. Right now dollar is at or near all time LOW. Benny can't drop rates! The Chinese & Japanese & Indians are holding Billions of dollars in foreign reserves and they ain't gonna be happy if dollar drops or the interest they are getting on treasuries drops. Where will Benny find customers for his fiat treasuries? Jobs are doing just fine with very low unemployment. The masses are happy, except for those who must sell their homes bought at inflated prices and with no equity.

[Pabst]

I've covered all my shorts tonight and flipped long in NQ. I'm also short some Bonds which should break on equity strength. I see NQ at 2400 sooner than later. You can't crash with Tech relatively strong.

[arbman]

pds, Fed wants to control the inflation, not create a deflation, the economic slow down risks are now elevated, the credit creation will be slower than the other countries for the next 2 quarters, the USD should bounce as soon as Fed says the risks of inflation is not a concern anymore. They do not have to lower at the moment, but rather they just need to say they won't be raising for the intermediate term...

Edited by kisacik, 05 August 2007 - 09:48 PM.

[ogm]

Here is a possibility... we sell on announcement, confuse and scare the crap out of everyone, and then rally starts. There is a lot of hope for the Fed's announcement. I'm guessing people will be buying tomorrow. But then dump on the news, and dump on Wednesday, and if that will be the case, I'll be adding on Wednseday close. I also think the rally will start off very slow, and will pick up sometime in a few days.

Edited by ogm, 05 August 2007 - 10:04 PM.

[dcengr]

From the fractal I'm following, there's an odd chance tomorrow can drop 3%, to scare the crap out of Ben and the bulls. But that would mark a bottom before like at least 10 day rally jumping out of it. But I'm leaning more towards more upside now going into Fed announcement and a few days beyond it, mainly because this board is so heavily leaned towards shorts right now. Either they'll cash in too early, or they'll have hit the jackpot.

[arbman]

ogm, they wiggle here a bit more and the rising 40 wk FLD triggers and the market crashes some 120 points in about a week. The market MUST rally. dcengr, you had the FF poll's chart with the SPX behind it, do you have an updated chart? TIA