14 replies to this topic

[ogm]

Banks are on fire and brokers finaly caught up. GS up 7+, even BSC went green. I will be selling some calls into the close here on some of my positions. Just to pick up some income, in case we sell on the Fed. Otherwise.. banks are a hold here. I frankly see very limited downside for the banks under Friday's lows.

[hiker]

two candle highs now in play above the 200sma on the 15min XLF..it is going to take a third candle and a candle close to follow above the 15min XLF 200sma to get me convinced R is not going to hold back the XLF advance for now. if that volume spike on the 3minute that took price up to 33.40 gets taken out, then maybe we can call this more than a reset of risk price action

Edited by hiker, 06 August 2007 - 01:52 PM.

[rkd80]

Banks are on fire and brokers finaly caught up. GS up 7+, even BSC went green.

I will be selling some calls into the close here on some of my positions. Just to pick up some income, in case we sell on the Fed. Otherwise.. banks are a hold here. I frankly see very limited downside for the banks under Friday's lows.

Nice big fat while candle on the banks chart, almost erased Friday's loss. If it holds today or even finishes a bit higher, then its a pretty strong reversal pattern. Your wash-out suggestion certainly is holding up

[ogm]

Banks are on fire and brokers finaly caught up. GS up 7+, even BSC went green.

I will be selling some calls into the close here on some of my positions. Just to pick up some income, in case we sell on the Fed. Otherwise.. banks are a hold here. I frankly see very limited downside for the banks under Friday's lows.

Nice big fat while candle on the banks chart, almost erased Friday's loss. If it holds today or even finishes a bit higher, then its a pretty strong reversal pattern. Your wash-out suggestion certainly is holding up

I think even if we pull back today or tomorrow on the banks, they are going to start crawling up from here.

That XLF summation must turn up today or tomorrow, that will signal overall improvement in the sector. And an up phase.

[beta]

GS next R = 189, if $XBD gets > 227, we're going to fly ....

[ogm]

two candle highs now in play above the 200sma on the 15min XLF..it is going to take a third candle and a candle close to follow above the 15min XLF 200sma to get me convinced R is not going to hold back the XLF advance for now.

if that volume spike on the 3minute that took price up to 33.40 gets taken out, then maybe we can call this more than a reset of risk price action

XLF opened Friday at 33.2, now its trading at 33.26

If we close around here, I think it will be a significant event, considering the volume on Friday and today.

Friday volume in XLF was simply astounding.

[IYB]

Banks are on fire and brokers finaly caught up. GS up 7+, even BSC went green.

The message is getting pretty darn clear I think -- with 2 year TSY notes now trading nearly 80 basis points below the Fed Funds Rate, the market is telling us that short term rates (fed funds, et al) WILL come down. The question is shifting from "if" to "when".

We'll likely see a shift in language tomorrow that will make this point- but Fed action to actually lowering of rates may be a ways off yet.

Meantime, though, the stockmarket (strong as it looks at the moment) remains in a downtrend. Fwiw. D

[ogm]

Banks are on fire and brokers finaly caught up. GS up 7+, even BSC went green.

The message is getting pretty darn clear I think -- with 2 year TSY notes now trading nearly 80 basis points below the Fed Funds Rate, the market is telling us that short term rates (fed funds, et al) WILL come down. The question is shifting from "if" to "when".

We'll likely see a shift in language tomorrow that will make this point- but Fed action to actually lowering of rates may be a ways off yet.

Meantime, though, the stockmarket (strong as it looks at the moment) remains in a downtrend. Fwiw. D

True about downtrend.

However I think Banks are in pretty good shape here. Well capitalized, paying 5+% dividends.
And now they can borrowe lower and lend higher.. better spreads = better profits

I can live with a little bit of downtrend in the banks while I collect dividends and sell OTM calls. Every little bit matters.

But frankly, I don't think the bank stocks have much downside here. Especcialy if the rates will be cut. Or at least while hope is still alive

[beta]

Exited GS 190 calls for a double, keeping LEH 60/65s -- we hit SPX 1465. Watch $XBD 227 for leadership.

Edited by beta, 06 August 2007 - 02:52 PM.

[IYB]

But frankly, I don't think the bank stocks have much downside here. Especcialy if the rates will be cut. Or at least while hope is still alive

I agree- that was actually part of my point-- the action in interest sensitive as well as demand sensitive areas, whether that be TSY notes, banks, or even oil and gold for that matter- is telling us that "times they are a changin'"- that we can expect (eventually) weakness in economy, Fed easing, lower rates, improving spreads for financials, and at some point down the road, lower 30-year mortgage rates....Best, D