I'm the first to be convinced of peak oil, inflation, weak dollar etc.
But when I trade i just follow my signal and post what says to me!
So we are now down more then 4$ from Friday close and my forcast to close under 73-74$ on the week seems come true. As i said i can see prices sub 50$ after that but of course being a weekly signal will be very hard to trade in fact could still go all the way to the 78$ area again or go down smoothly, price is even more difficult to forcast it could be for 4 weeks to 20 weeks.
jmho
Oil part 2
Started by
espresso
, Aug 07 2007 02:40 AM
3 replies to this topic
#1
espresso
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Posted 07 August 2007 - 02:40 AM
Sorry I didn't follw up the thread yesterday, I was too busy counting...
I'm the first to be convinced of peak oil, inflation, weak dollar etc.
But when I trade i just follow my signal and post what says to me!
So we are now down more then 4$ from Friday close and my forcast to close under 73-74$ on the week seems come true. As i said i can see prices sub 50$ after that but of course being a weekly signal will be very hard to trade in fact could still go all the way to the 78$ area again or go down smoothly, price is even more difficult to forcast it could be for 4 weeks to 20 weeks.
jmho
I'm the first to be convinced of peak oil, inflation, weak dollar etc.
But when I trade i just follow my signal and post what says to me!
So we are now down more then 4$ from Friday close and my forcast to close under 73-74$ on the week seems come true. As i said i can see prices sub 50$ after that but of course being a weekly signal will be very hard to trade in fact could still go all the way to the 78$ area again or go down smoothly, price is even more difficult to forcast it could be for 4 weeks to 20 weeks.
jmho
Spesi FF
#2
espresso
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Posted 07 August 2007 - 02:57 AM
Coming to the indices.
I said picture is not very clear for US(long ndx anyway) and i prefer selected sectors and Europe .
I said my forcast is for several days to few weeks.
I can add that indices will fail then, but don't try to short before that,
they will probably go for the TP OEX target this time.
JMHO
Sorry i mean "time" not "price"
Just trying to be a Fearless Forcaster!!!
I said picture is not very clear for US(long ndx anyway) and i prefer selected sectors and Europe .
I said my forcast is for several days to few weeks.
I can add that indices will fail then, but don't try to short before that,
they will probably go for the TP OEX target this time.
JMHO
", price is even more"
Sorry i mean "time" not "price"
Just trying to be a Fearless Forcaster!!!
Edited by Espresso, 07 August 2007 - 03:03 AM.
Spesi FF
#3
Cirrus
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Posted 07 August 2007 - 09:34 AM
The problem with oil is NG. We have so much NG in storage it's insane. I'm looking for a drop in NG even from these levels. There is a large dichotomy between NG and oil. It's going to force increased LNG use in emerging economies over oil. It will also place more pressure on the US to favor NG.
The price/BTU tradeoff is around 6.5 if I recall correctly. That would mean you should be able to multiply the price of NG by 6.5 and get an approximate price for CL. NG is trading at a huge discount right now.
#4
espresso
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Posted 07 August 2007 - 02:25 PM
The problem with oil is NG. We have so much NG in storage it's insane. I'm looking for a drop in NG even from these levels. There is a large dichotomy between NG and oil. It's going to force increased LNG use in emerging economies over oil. It will also place more pressure on the US to favor NG.
The price/BTU tradeoff is around 6.5 if I recall correctly. That would mean you should be able to multiply the price of NG by 6.5 and get an approximate price for CL. NG is trading at a huge discount right now.
I had a look at $natgas, the problem is i can't get longer data then Aug 05 for my momo signal, but anyway looks like is about to make a rally! I could be 2 to 20 weeks(!) but i don't see much downside instead the rally will be for sure! Your comparison is relative could be that after 10 weeks of crash for oil and little downtrend for gas will be an eccellent bottom for both...
jmho
Spesi FF
