I am thinking that a bottom here would be just too easy, and we all know that the market is generally not known for being all that easy when it comes to picking tops or bottoms.
In the chart below, notice the current SnP set up in relation to the set up in late May 2006. This would suggest a continued rise to what is now a falling 50 dma and a second leg down approximately equivalent to the first. Translated, this projects to a target of 1380 which is a level of support that has been mentioned in this forum.
I have no idea whether the market will follow this path or continue up from here, but chart history reflects that it is certainly a possibility.
Fwiw...Mike
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p81359954155&a=113896047&r=5089.png
Current set up vs Summer 06
Started by
emdee
, Aug 07 2007 05:26 PM
3 replies to this topic
#2
hiker
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- TT Member*
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independent trader
Posted 07 August 2007 - 05:34 PM
have similar thoughts with some simple price action milestones noted here -
http://www.traders-t...?...;blogid=26
http://www.traders-t...?...;blogid=26
#3
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 07 August 2007 - 06:51 PM
The sentiment is a bit more like the June low than the bounce low. Relative VIX way up there.
Still, I can't rule out your read. Two weeks or even a bit less of rally could very well set up another decline.
Mark
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#4
emdee
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- TT Member+
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Posted 16 August 2007 - 07:23 PM
The projection below came up a few points shy of the 50dma before reversing down and extended a tad below the 1380. So far the set up looks right on track as compared to last summer. The next question will be...does it stick? The nature of this bounce will be the tell.
I am thinking that a bottom here would be just too easy, and we all know that the market is generally not known for being all that easy when it comes to picking tops or bottoms.
In the chart below, notice the current SnP set up in relation to the set up in late May 2006. This would suggest a continued rise to what is now a falling 50 dma and a second leg down approximately equivalent to the first. Translated, this projects to a target of 1380 which is a level of support that has been mentioned in this forum.
I have no idea whether the market will follow this path or continue up from here, but chart history reflects that it is certainly a possibility.
Fwiw...Mike
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p81359954155&a=113896047&r=5089.png
Edited by Brickie86, 16 August 2007 - 07:25 PM.
