8 replies to this topic

[blustar]

August 1 obviously put in the momentum low, now we see a lower low without confirmation of a new MOM low. Ideally, August 10th is my date for that low. I am fully short yesterday at QQQQ 48.50 and voted neutral for today. Thursday should start the downside action in earnest with a follow through Friday morning semi-panic (interesting to see what news event causes this). Market should be up into OPEX taking out this expected wave of selling. The recent action is an a-b-c counter trend 'b' wave and beings this is a "z" wave of a larger B, we should see channel and support breaks before all is said and done. Once this selling climax concludes itself, we should see higher highs into mid October, with an SPX target near 1588. Downside should be limited to 1363 area (if that). I have QQQQ target of 46.70 then 45.55. I'm more interested in time than price here, but with that said, again, I say lower prices are in the cards before an important bottom is in place.

[ogm]

You think CSCO and PCLN won't help the QQQQ today ? I frankly thing today is the day when people are scrambing to pick something for the bounce.

[blustar]

We have what looks like a gap up, so I believe they sell it and then rally it later in an a-b-c type wave two manner. Sure they help it, but it still looks overall toppy to me on the index.

[eminimee]

My work says the bottom is in and any dip should be a higher low.....if we make new lows they won't be by a hair and obviously I'm wrong and would have to change my count....1405ish should be hit on any lower low and below that...1380,1364, 1330. I have a target of 1608 for this leg up with a retest of the low we just made in Oct/Nov. That's if the low is in. For me now...it's a question of how fast we make it to 1608.. a higher low now on the next pull back will either be a wave 2 low and then a powerful 3 up....or the next low will be a C wave down of a triangle 4th ...

[ogm]

We have what looks like a gap up, so I believe they sell it and then rally it later in an a-b-c type wave two manner. Sure they help it, but it still looks overall toppy to me on the index.

I think the only thing that happened is we tested 55 EMA on daily, which is usualy a big support or resistance.
And we held it very well for 4 days. look at white candles there. And now we're gaping up. I don't see anything bearish.

And weekly/monthly charts have momentum up strongly, a lot of support there. At the same time sentiment on this retest went through the roof bearish. Also bullish.

Edited by ogm, 08 August 2007 - 07:44 AM.

[kc135a]

August 1 obviously put in the momentum low, now we see a lower low without confirmation of a new MOM low. Ideally, August 10th is my date for that low. I am fully short yesterday at QQQQ 48.50 and voted neutral for today. Thursday should start the downside action in earnest with a follow through Friday morning semi-panic (interesting to see what news event causes this).

Market should be up into OPEX taking out this expected wave of selling.

The recent action is an a-b-c counter trend 'b' wave and beings this is a "z" wave of a larger B, we should see channel and support breaks before all is said and done. Once this selling climax concludes itself, we should see higher highs into mid October, with an SPX target near 1588. Downside should be limited to 1363 area (if that). I have QQQQ target of 46.70 then 45.55. I'm more interested in time than price here, but with that said, again, I say lower prices are in the cards before an important bottom is in place.

I don't use ewaves but am getting the same idea as you. I still have the high being the first week of October which is close enough.

I hedged all of my longs yesterday looking for the short term low you are looking for this week.

I enjoyed reading your post in the past and am happy to see you jumping in more frequently.

KC

[eminimee]

I'm thinking something like this....a new low now would be tough for me to stick with this..

two paths I was mentioning

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&i=p77296892999&a=57601821&r=7362.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&i=p98598037990&a=99807757&r=9409.png

[blustar]

Keep in mind I tend to swing or trend trade trade. Short at QQQQ 46.50 is only against me by 8 cents right now. Obviously, this isn't a wave two, but part of the a-b-c type counter trend rally we are seeing. The nesting of lows is due 8-10/14 based on Gann's 8 day cycle and the 48-56 day cycle. Right now we are 17 days off the July 16th top on the SPX +1 from the Gann 16 day cycle top. Another thing to mention would be the new moon due Friday/Saturday, usually an important reversal date. We also have support in the low 46.00 area, so it remains to be seen how low the 4Q's go, still the SPX looks like 1363ish as likely right now. Thanks KC for the welcome back.

[blustar]

I'm still inclined to believer we get hit hard over the next three days. The e-wave pattern is VERY BEARISH as is the cycle work. Maximum downside is QQQQ 45.55 and SPX 1347. August 13 is exactly 55 days or 11 weeks from the last bottom and is also 8 days from the MOM low August 1. Looks awesome and I admit I shorted too soon but...this thing looks, well, like a huge down spike coming.... wave 'c' of "z" awesome!!!! If we can get this washout selling here in the next three days I would and only then turn bullish for a move higher into October to near 1590 SPX. I'm still short.