13 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Bought some Sep OEX puts right here around SPX 1499 level. Risking about 5% of my account only. BTW, i don't have any sell on the hourly yet, but approaching one. My trade is based on the fact that the weekly still remains on a sell. So until that turns up, this rally will be treated as a large countertrend bounce in my work. Once the weekly momentum turns up, i will then consider that we have bottomed. Either way a reaction here is more likely than not With that swing trade in the background, i will continue my leveraged VST trading with my hourly signals.

Edited by NAV, 08 August 2007 - 12:58 PM.

[ogm]

Sorry, don't mean to argue.. but sometimes by the time the trend turns up.. its too late.

[NAV]

Sorry, don't mean to argue.. but sometimes by the time the trend turns up.. its too late.

Worst case, i will take a 3-4% hit on my account, if the reaction does not materialize and my weekly turns up. In the meantime, i will scalp the long side with futures. I am not too leveraged and i am not too worried.

Best.

[arbman]

NAV, your target of 1620 might get hit by the end of September, fyi...

[Russ]

I'm in your camp Nav, think it should at least go down and close the gap from yesterday.

[pedro]

Sorry, don't mean to argue.. but sometimes by the time the trend turns up.. its too late.

Worst case, i will take a 3-4% hit on my account, if the reaction does not materialize and my weekly turns up. In the meantime, i will scalp the long side with futures. I am not too leveraged and i am not too worried.

Best.

NAV, you clearly don't need anyone to reinforce your views, but I'm in full agreement with you. "Fast, furious and prone to failure" as one esteemed fellow would say. Moreover, even my daily 'trend' indicators are still down and while they lag an upturn, it would be unusual for the trend to reverse up with these indicators' slopes still firmly down ... not unheard of ... but rare ....

But I am still looking for my opening to launch puts. Have a slightly higher target in mind. Why OEX this time? Less excitable than RUT?

Cheers

pdl

[arbman]

Honestly, if SPX manages to rally to 1520, it is likely to continue a vertical up until the expirations about another 100 points. So, the index needs to decline right from here to fail it... CBOE P/C says the bears are still quite confident here... - kisa

[NAV]

Bye bye bounce....Hourly sell at 3:00 Est

P.S I could not post the signal in a timely manner as traders-talk website was frozen for nearly 5 minutes. Too much traffic, i guess.

Edited by NAV, 08 August 2007 - 02:09 PM.

[rkd80]

Bye bye bounce....Hourly sell at 3:00 Est

P.S I could not post the signal in a timely manner as traders-talk website was frozen for nearly 5 minutes. Too much traffic, i guess.

TT is being ultra sluggish today, dont know whats up.

I went short ES at 1510 myself but i dont really have a downside target. This could be the start of the bottom test or just a minor hick-up. Not sure how to gauge it. Given the ferocity in which we got here, I assume we should probably sell-off quickly. Keep us posted Nav!

[NAV]

Sorry, don't mean to argue.. but sometimes by the time the trend turns up.. its too late.

Worst case, i will take a 3-4% hit on my account, if the reaction does not materialize and my weekly turns up. In the meantime, i will scalp the long side with futures. I am not too leveraged and i am not too worried.

Best.

Why OEX this time? Less excitable than RUT?

Cheers

pdl

That was because of the relative strength of the RUT today. Added some futures shorts as well at the hourly bar close at 3:00 Est.

Edited by NAV, 08 August 2007 - 02:19 PM.