10 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

I'm just fiddleing....but I have a count that says we are going to new highs into early fall in a wave 5 of lesser degree...and a wave 4 drop of a higher degree in Oct/nov. This is really basic using the Oct. 98 drop as the bottom of a 4.5 year cycle....Measuring from there 4 years and six months takes us to the March/April 03 area and from there...into Oct/Nov this year....

I'm wondering your thoughts on a test of this recent low then... with a Hurst perspective.



http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&yr=10&mn=11&dy=29&i=p10218014444&a=87012087&r=200.png

Edited by Teaparty, 08 August 2007 - 06:22 PM.

[marco]

Hi Teaparty, Any chance you can draw wave 4 and 5 on your chart for those of us who can't figure it out by themselves? Thanks.

[maineman]

many ways of interpreting the same data. I do not do cycle studies, per se, but enjoy reading Airedale. What I use is the NYSI/summartion index with a "count" of advancing and declining issues which I've posted 2 charts recently. When this gets oversold it is always a buy, in a bull market. I believe we've successfully tested that AD low last week. THis suggests higher prices ahead, for at least the next several months. Of course this infomration only impacts my "position" or "intemediate" trades, has minimal to no bearing on my intraday scalps. BUt, the recent test is, in my opinion, a significant test which implies good upside value over the next few months. I'll post the data/charts when they information reverses, i.e. gets too overbought. THis may not be until October.... mm

[arbman]

Tea, all these lows should be tested in the next 5-6 months imho, I wouldn't think a 4.5 yr long cycle bottoms over one weekend. The 10 wk low is due at the last week of Oct, inline with the fundamental chart above...

However, not only it can be a higher low, but also the current IT trend is up because there is no cluster of FLD triggers lined up at the lower prices at the moment and the decline ran out of time to reach to the lower ones. Currently, The only ones are the ones getting triggered at the moment as the prices rally higher and higher, imho.

If the price rallies to 1524 in the next few days, it will also trigger the 10 wk FLD for another 100 points higher until the next 10 wk low comes, it would be mega bullish until the early September ahead of a secondary crash around the last week of October...

- kisa

[airedale88]

I'm just fiddleing....but I have a count that says we are going to new highs into early fall in a wave 5 of lesser degree...and a wave 4 drop of a higher degree in Oct/nov. This is really basic using the Oct. 98 drop as the bottom of a 4.5 year cycle....Measuring from there 4 years and six months takes us to the March/April 03 area and from there...into Oct/Nov this year....

I'm wondering your thoughts on a test of this recent low then... with a Hurst perspective.

Tea, oct 98 was a nominal 4.5 yr low, and 53 months later the next 4.5 yr low bottomed in early march 03. we're right at 53 months now from that march 03 low. BUT, simple counting of time periods can lead to trouble since these cycles do exhibit slight variation and a one month variation in a large cycle could mean many points. a more accurate method to determine cycle troughs is applying the phasing methods Hurst developed. one element of this method is using harmonicity. every nominal 4.5 yr cycle (48 to 54 months), will divide into three nominal 18 month cycles (16 to 18 months, if the 4.5 yr cycle runs to the short side, so will all smaller cycles). these 18 month cycles divide into six nominal 9 month cycles. these divide into twelve nominal 20 wk cycles, twenty four 10 wk cycles, forty eight 5 wk cycles, etc. the Hurst analyst, starting from the largest cycles on down, uses certain rules and tools to indentify these cycle troughs. there will be areas on the chart where there is little or no visual evidence of a cycle low when one is expected. using the harmonic relationships between the cycles and the principle of synchronicity ( at a cycle low all smaller harmonic cycles also make a low) we can determine any cycle trough, even if not visually apparent. the nominal 20 wk low that has formed at the end of july/early august is the twentieth nominal 20 wk cycle since the mar 03 4.5 yr low. based on the Hurst cycle model this low is also labeled as the 4.5 yr cycle low.
the high right translation (cycles topping just before they bottom), is indicative of a cyclic trend larger than the 4.5 yr cycle that is very bullish. unless there is some broad negative fundamental event not evident now, i would expect any oct low (it would only be a nominal 10 wk low based on hurst's model) to be a higher low than the current lows. i think any test of the low would come much sooner.

Edited by airedale88, 08 August 2007 - 11:36 PM.

[arbman]

The current momentum pattern suggests at least a test of the 50 dma. Statistically, whenever the 50 dma is tested under the current momentum patterns, the index managed to pull one more advance about a standard deviation of the 20 ma, sometimes a few days consolidation took place, sometimes it went straight up. The odds are more than 70% and it makes 1535-1540 a likely target... It usually retreated for a few days thereafter, in some cases a water fall followed too. But particularly in this case, the 10 wk FLD will be most likely triggered in the next 1 or 2 weeks if the bollinger band(20, 1) is tagged, that's potentially 100 SPX points higher by the last week of Oct for the IT... I tested using this pattern... /// the configuration of the recent price high is above ma(50) /// this is for OEX close is above ma(200) close has been increasing for the last 3 days /// the configuration of the trend 5 day slope of ma(50) is below 0 10 day slope of ma(20) is below 0 20 day slope of ma(200) is above 0 close is above lower bollinger band(20, 1) close is below upper bollinger band(20, 1) ma(50) is above lower bollinger band(20, 1) ma(50) is below upper bollinger band(20, 1) ma(200) is below lower bollinger band(20, 1) /// the configuration of the low 10 day slope of atr(20) is above 0 /// high volatility 8 day slope of CCI(20) is above 0 /// bottoming action CCI(20) 8 day ago is below -200 /// an extreme low

[airedale88]

Tea, all these lows should be tested in the next 5-6 months imho, I wouldn't think a 4.5 yr long cycle bottoms over one weekend. The 10 wk low is due at the last week of Oct, inline with the fundamental chart above...

However, not only it can be a higher low, but also the current IT trend is up because there is no cluster of FLD triggers lined up at the lower prices at the moment and the decline ran out of time to reach to the lower ones. Currently, The only ones are the ones getting triggered at the moment as the prices rally higher and higher, imho.

If the price rallies to 1524 in the next few days, it will also trigger the 10 wk FLD for another 100 points higher until the next 10 wk low comes, it would be mega bullish until the early September ahead of a secondary crash around the last week of October...

- kisa

kisa, for the next 2 wks the 20 wk fld is below the rising 10 wk fld. that's more of a pause zone pattern, any 10 wk fld break would be suspect.

[arbman]

It is not going to be a decisive break, true, I am scaling down my bullishness. I think a little over 50 dma will be the pause zone, I doubt that SPX will give up the rally before there. But given the volatility so far, it can overshoot a pull back...

[eminimee]

Thanks very much Airedale...and others

[airedale88]

tea, an error in my longwinded post. the 20 wk cycle that just bottomed is the 12th 20 wk cycle from the march 03 nominal 4.5 yr low, indicating it is also a 4.5 yr low. it was not the 20 th. should have proof read the post.

Edited by airedale88, 09 August 2007 - 09:20 AM.