4 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Small change on the NYSE MCO. So more volatility tommorow, as though we don't have enough

NYSE MCO perfect snapback to the zero line. Daily CCI at zero - That implies perfect breadth momentum and price momentum equilibrium. No wonder we have all that tension on the tape.

Weekly CCI deep in the hole. NYSE 5% and 10% components deep in the hole. NYSE summation still down - That implies IT trend is still down.

What would get me bullish here ? Simple - Give me another day of breadth thrust to push the NYSE MCO 5% and 10% above the zero line. Turn the summation up. Push the weekly CCI above -100. That would turn the IT trend up. If and when that happens, then every pullback is a buying opportunity. If and when that happens, there will be plenty of opportunities for those looking to play the long side. Cuz that would be a multi-month rally and not a 2 or 3 day wonder.

Until then, the danger of a price climax lurks in the background.

Edited by NAV, 08 August 2007 - 10:50 PM.

[rkd80]

are you still leaning bearish until such events take place?

Small change on the NYSE MCO. So more volatility tommorow, as though we don't have enough

NYSE MCO perfect snapback to the zero line. Daily CCI at zero - That implies perfect breadth momentum and price momentum equilibrium. No wonder we have all that tension on the tape.

Weekly CCI deep in the hole. NYSE 5% and 10% components deep in the hole. NYSE summation still down - That implies IT trend is still down.

What would get me bullish here ? Simple - Give me another day of breadth thrust to push the NYSE MCO 5% and 10% above the zero line. Turn the summation up. Push the weekly CCI above -100. That would turn the IT trend up. If and when that happens, then every pullback is a buying opportunity. If and when that happens, there will be plenty of opportunities for those looking to play the long side. Cuz that would be a multi-month rally and not a 2 or 3 day wonder.

Until then, the danger of a price climax lurks in the background.

[arbman]

Small change on the NYSE MCO

NAV, MCO changed by +29 today, it was not small.

I think the bulls are trying to gain the 50 dma back...

- kisa

[NAV]

rkd, Until the weekly turns up, i woudn't paint myslef as a bull or bear, cuz the market will be on tenterhooks. It will remain volatile and a trader's market. Once the weekly turns up though, playing the uptrend will be the way to go. Kisa, Oops ! You are right. It was not a small change.

[arbman]

I think the magnet is the 50 dma here, but it can overshoot it like it did in March, the growth (tech and industrials) underperformed this decline. I think I am going to try to go long (on a pull back in the morning) and see whether it achieves the 50 dma and sell and perhaps sell short at 50 dma depending on how it gets there (breadth etc). The problem is the stop, where do you place it when there is so much volatility and so little to gain. It looks like a push above 50 dma will turn the participants quite ST bullish. So a safer approach might be just to wait until the 50 dma is hit and see what happens first to take a swing (short) position...

Edited by kisacik, 09 August 2007 - 01:49 AM.