5 replies to this topic

[ogm]

My internet was down all morning ! Economic news isn't much better. Liquidity injection is good, but the retail sales were absolutely bad. That said, it may have nothing to do with the market. Yesteday there was a bit of a jump in bullishness, but overall there is way to much shorts trying to take this thing down. So I think, we'll just remain in these volatile ranges. I lightened up alittle more on longs, to lock in just a little more profits. But overall, my plan is to sell calls, collect dividends and wait for this [bleeeep] to sort itself out. Its already clear that this country is in trouble, thats why next rate move will be down, and liquidity will keep on coming into the system. technicaly we're in a position to retest the lows, but I don't think it will get much worse then that. For some reason the best performing secotr is ethanol today on my screens. ANDE, my best performing stock today, is flying to new 52 week high. (25% short positon isn't helping bears much on that one) Also for some very surprizing to some people reason, REITS aren't doing badly. Some green, some barely red. NCT the best performing one I have is up 9% after filing 10-Q filled with horror stories, of what can possibly theoreticaly happen but isn't happening yet. At the same time they expect to take advantage of this market mess and make a lot of money picking up heavily discounted loans.

[ogm]

woot PG is 52 week high too. Those calls looking good. adding TKC, great earnings report. I'm guessing stock down on general weakness in the market... Sell the news thing. Long term looking very good. Dividends aren't bad either, and they have history of raising them. NDAQ looking good too. BTW, NDAQ and ADM have very similar setups on weekly charts. Long term pendant consolidations. And both green today. I was long NYX before, but I sold a few days ago. Now thinking of getting back in. Its a little more expensive then the Nasdaq, but the market volumes have been increasing significantly both here and in Europe.

[Cirrus]

Actually, I thought today's news was bullish...FCBs are going to provide liquidity which not only helps things out but preserves the dollar to an extent. The market still can't rally which is actually surprising me.

[ogm]

Actually, I thought today's news was bullish...FCBs are going to provide liquidity which not only helps things out but preserves the dollar to an extent. The market still can't rally which is actually surprising me.

We had huge moves on some stocks in last couple days. So pull back isn't surprizing. This is still very volatile environment.

FCB maybe will provide the liquidity, but the retail sales are showing clear signs that consumer is in trouble.
I think this was the worst news today.

That BAP Paribas can't price some loans in their portfolios, I think that was pretty meaningless. There is no demand for them, thats for sure and everyone is lowballing the bids. But the default rates are still pretty low, even thow in % terms the increases sound bad.

If default rate goes up from 0.5% to 1% that the 100% increase in default rate... PANIC !

ECB injecting almost 100 bil is definitely bullish. Plus I still think that since CDO's were such a huge sponge for liquidity and now they are not. People won't put too much money in those instruments anymore. But the liquid large cap stocks with high dividends.. that seems like something that would benefit in this environment.

But.. there are clear signs that consumer is under stress.. rising defaults and lower retail sales... and thats really bad news.

Edited by ogm, 09 August 2007 - 01:19 PM.

[greenie]

Also for some very surprizing to some people reason, REITS aren't doing badly. Some green, some barely red. NCT the best performing one I have is up 9% after filing 10-Q filled with horror stories, of what can possibly theoreticaly happen but isn't happening yet. At the same time they expect to take advantage of this market mess and make a lot of money picking up heavily discounted loans.

How is NRO doing? I think the market is really dumb not to recognize its value

[OEXCHAOS]

Greenie, it's behaving 3 times better than the market. We call that relative strength. It's typical of a sold out value. Sleepy, big dividend paying stock. Nobody cares. Then, one day, we'll look in on it and it'll have appreciated 20% on top of 13.5% dividends. M