Horrible news today....
#1
Posted 09 August 2007 - 12:41 PM
#2
Posted 09 August 2007 - 01:05 PM
#3
Posted 09 August 2007 - 01:07 PM
#4
Posted 09 August 2007 - 01:17 PM
Actually, I thought today's news was bullish...FCBs are going to provide liquidity which not only helps things out but preserves the dollar to an extent. The market still can't rally which is actually surprising me.
We had huge moves on some stocks in last couple days. So pull back isn't surprizing. This is still very volatile environment.
FCB maybe will provide the liquidity, but the retail sales are showing clear signs that consumer is in trouble.
I think this was the worst news today.
That BAP Paribas can't price some loans in their portfolios, I think that was pretty meaningless. There is no demand for them, thats for sure and everyone is lowballing the bids. But the default rates are still pretty low, even thow in % terms the increases sound bad.
If default rate goes up from 0.5% to 1% that the 100% increase in default rate... PANIC !
ECB injecting almost 100 bil is definitely bullish. Plus I still think that since CDO's were such a huge sponge for liquidity and now they are not. People won't put too much money in those instruments anymore. But the liquid large cap stocks with high dividends.. that seems like something that would benefit in this environment.
But.. there are clear signs that consumer is under stress.. rising defaults and lower retail sales... and thats really bad news.
Edited by ogm, 09 August 2007 - 01:19 PM.
#5
Posted 09 August 2007 - 01:32 PM
Also for some very surprizing to some people reason, REITS aren't doing badly. Some green, some barely red. NCT the best performing one I have is up 9% after filing 10-Q filled with horror stories, of what can possibly theoreticaly happen but isn't happening yet. At the same time they expect to take advantage of this market mess and make a lot of money picking up heavily discounted loans.
How is NRO doing? I think the market is really dumb not to recognize its value
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#6
Posted 09 August 2007 - 03:20 PM
Mark S Young
Wall Street Sentiment
Get a free trial here:
http://wallstreetsen...t.com/trial.htm
You can now follow me on twitter