4 replies to this topic

[espresso]

Unless there is something able to move oil price 3$ up tomorrow, Top Is In and i expect a drastic drop! Mark my words. It could try to retest the highs but don't have to. I don't undersand myself what this means: recession or the discovery of the fusion? lol

[Cirrus]

Maybe a ST drop. However, oil stocks have some of the best relative strength in the market. The group is rock solid versus other stocks and only the NG specific sector of the energy stock group is performing poorly. Typically the market sniffs out lower CL prices well in advance. If you pull up a chart of the OSX vs CL you'll see that the stocks nearly always decline well in advance of CL. I do agree with you that we're due some 60s prints. However, the global CL supply and demand balance is way too tenuous to allow anything more IMO. That's unless we are going to have a global recession or worse.

[espresso]

My model is very clear, i'm waiting the Friday print for final confirmation, but i'm pretty sure that will be valid: I'm talking about 6 months of decline at least or sub 50 quickly and then consolidation for some time. Wait and you'll see... JMHO

[Cirrus]

The problem with commodities versus stocks as far as technical analysis goes is that people just don't stop using crude oil when a chart says they will. Commodities trade on some degree of rationality...at least more so than stocks. I'm not trying to poke at you and, heck, you may even be right. However, if CL goes sub 50 the equity markets are in big, big trouble cause they'll be pricing in a global recession.

Edited by Cirrus, 09 August 2007 - 01:46 PM.

[espresso]

Well i can say that it was a 50$ at the begin of year, the summer driving season is almost finished, the hurricane season is so far non-existent, recession is at the door step, international turbolences have calmed down, only question mark is Iraq. Then as i said, could be that the discovery of fusion is the missing link!