7 replies to this topic

[beta]

Stop LOD. Target mid-190's. Per post below, downside targets met (SPX 1459).

Edited by beta, 09 August 2007 - 02:18 PM.

[ogm]

I think it will make slightly lower low.. I'm waiting to buy there.

[darnelds]

A daily chart of GS looks like next support is the gap at 150. Maybe I'm too pessimistic.

[kaiser soze]

Beta, this time we part ways on GS. I reloaded on Aug GS puts this morning (The 170s and 180s) and am comfortably up already. No plans of selling them yet.

[ogm]

Beta, this time we part ways on GS.

I reloaded on Aug GS puts this morning (The 170s and 180s) and am comfortably up already. No plans of selling them yet.

One of GS's largest businesses is trading. I bet they aren't doing that bad with these volumes and volatility.
Fundamentaly its one of the strongest brokers in this kind of market and they will post " better then expected" numbers easily.

Considering how little is expected of them now.

[kaiser soze]

Actually ogm, they might be doing badly for all you know. GS's prop desk relies heavily on quantitative statistical trading which is predicated on the maintenance of similar correlation coefficients between different securities. And I am not even talking about bridge loans or ABS sitting on their books, or the loss of earnings due to decline in I-banking activity. Last few weeks, these relationships have broken down. The quant-only fund such as DE Shaw, Renaissance, etc are hurting badly. GS cannot remain unaffected though I agree that they must be benefiting from the commissions on the humongous volumes we are seeing day afer day. In fact, the one thing bulls and bears seem to be able to agree upon these days is :GS is best of breed. I heard Jim Cramer mention it, knowledgable posters like you mention it and the Fast Money guys mention it too. I would like to take the opposite side of that universally held opinion-with defined risk of course.

Edited by kaiser soze, 09 August 2007 - 04:27 PM.

[beta]

Good thoughts, team -- my GS long is based solely on technicals, not fundamentals here (which could very well be deteriorating). Darnelds, I also think GS trades down to 140-150 range by Sept, but looking for a short-term counterswing to wipe out recent shorts before the next rout begins. Anyways, your caution is well-warranted and dont want to risk a gap down. Closed out my long and switched to GS 190 calls. Target remains 195+ Also still holding LEH Sept 60 puts (bot yesterday), as hedge.

Edited by beta, 09 August 2007 - 05:01 PM.

[darnelds]

If GS closes up on Friday, the 190 calls will do great (assuming these 10-point daily swings continue for a little while longer). On a daily chart, there is a text book 5-wave decline from the July top. So we could certainly get more of a 4th wave up here (into options expiration) and right here (at 180) would be a logical place for it to reverse up. If it makes a new weekly low close on Friday, this could be really awful.

Good thoughts, team -- my GS long is based solely on technicals, not fundamentals here (which could very well be deteriorating).

Darnelds, I also think GS trades down to 140-150 range by Sept, but looking for a short-term counterswing to wipe out recent shorts before the next rout begins.

Anyways, your caution is well-warranted and dont want to risk a gap down. Closed out my long and switched to GS 190 calls.

Target remains 195+

Also still holding LEH Sept 60 puts (bot yesterday), as hedge.