10 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Thanks Kisacik for bringing up this. VIX made a higher high today. Whereas, ES is at a higher low, about 30 points above the prior swing low. In other words, a retracement of the rally is causing more fear and panic than the actual swing low itself. The divergence is bullish, but not a signal to go long yet. Certainly, not in the midst of this panic. If a hourly buy materializes here, it could turn out to be a major one. I am waiting patiently for either a hourly buy or a continuation sell, whichever comes next.....

[hiker]

SPY sellers taking it down to 145.30's in after hours... 145.29 tp .31 is a tempting buy spot based on your point. I covered rest of my short..thanks for the good perspective and trading posts today

[rkd80]

Thanks Kisacik for bringing up this. VIX made a higher high today. Whereas, ES is at a higher low, about 30 points above the prior swing low. In other words, a retracement of the rally is causing more fear and panic than the actual swing low itself. The divergence is bullish, but not a signal to go long yet. Certainly, not in the midst of this panic. If a hourly buy materializes here, it could turn out to be a major one.

I am waiting patiently for either a hourly buy or a continuation sell, whichever comes next.....

its definitely odd to see so much panic. a restest of the lows should be welcomed by the bulls, i dont see why a continuion of frenzy buying is a good thing. Of course this could always turn out to be summer of '06 like someone pointed out and we will make a lower low, but that is pretty unlikely given how oversold the internals are and how low the summations have gotten.

This looks more like Feb 27th actually. The re-test was done in TWO days. First day was a swift brutal kick in the @ss, second day opened lower, closed up and never looked back.

[ogm]

Thanks Kisacik for bringing up this. VIX made a higher high today. Whereas, ES is at a higher low, about 30 points above the prior swing low. In other words, a retracement of the rally is causing more fear and panic than the actual swing low itself. The divergence is bullish, but not a signal to go long yet. Certainly, not in the midst of this panic. If a hourly buy materializes here, it could turn out to be a major one.

I am waiting patiently for either a hourly buy or a continuation sell, whichever comes next.....

I have a feeling that VIX will hit the classic 35-40 zone. I had it for a long time..

Will buy some VIX puts at 40. At this rate shouldn't be long.

Edited by ogm, 09 August 2007 - 03:13 PM.

[NAV]

Also, nobody mentioned how well the REITs held today amidst all the subprime panic. Look at IYR.

[ogm]

Also, nobody mentioned how well the REITs held today amidst all the subprime panic. Look at IYR.

I did

I'm long some. NCT, RAS, NRO, NRI, DLR

btw.. DLR a superb LT investment. Take a look. They are Data Center REIT. Business is booming. New contracts almost every week.

NRO was holding flat all day, but Greenie scored 14 cents in the end..lol

its now trading at about 9% discount to NAV.

Oh well, Greenie can keep 14 cents, he'll need them to pay the 15 cent dividend this month

Edited by ogm, 09 August 2007 - 03:32 PM.

[arbman]

You're welcome NAV. The credit spreads are also still declining and now below 400 bps for the high yield BBB, this is a very important IT liquidity situation, imho... Everything is pointing to a V-bottom is in place actually, I can not believe it, I don't think anyone will believe it either. The new lows are also diverging, today really purged the weakest... The ECB made a big favor to the Fed, everyone in US should be thankful to them. They really saved the USD today and Fed could work the decline out with more repos in return, the panic out there could easily take out the lows with a crash, imho... - kisa

[sglasson]

its definitely odd to see so much panic. a restest of the lows should be welcomed by the bulls, i dont see why a continuion of frenzy buying is a good thing. Of course this could always turn out to be summer of '06 like someone pointed out and we will make a lower low, but that is pretty unlikely given how oversold the internals are and how low the summations have gotten.

This looks more like Feb 27th actually. The re-test was done in TWO days. First day was a swift brutal kick in the @ss, second day opened lower, closed up and never looked back.

sure wish I knew which one - I hate to say it, but maybe we should be looking outside the technicals for the best answer - ECB actions and US futures pricing in a 100% Fed rate cut in Sept might be a hint that the worst is not over - ECB/Fed probably behind the curve as usual

[hiker]

SPY in late afterhours just now traded to 144.50's...about $1 lower than when mentioned above in this thread.

[kaiser soze]

J7 rising relentlessly maybe one reason. CFC related news maybe another.