The BOTTOM is in !
#1
Posted 11 August 2007 - 02:43 AM
http://nav-ta.blogsp...ttom-is-in.html
#2
Posted 11 August 2007 - 03:17 AM
It's the illiquidity, stupid !
#3
Posted 11 August 2007 - 04:04 AM
#4
Posted 11 August 2007 - 04:49 AM
I guess it is better to turn off the TV and just follow the trading model...
I agree 100%. Markets are all about greed and fear. It has got nothing to do with the dollar, bonds, credit. economy, blah...blah...blah. It took me 10 years to understand that. Not by discovering anything pathbreaking, but by observing, otherwise extremely smart people, many with economic and financial Phds, failing again and again. If anyone can explain market dynamics with an economic model, i will dare them to explain the brazil market going from 10000 to 60000 in 4 years. Those cuties from Rio have driven the valuations insane !
When folks are greedy, they beg, borrow, steal and spend. That drives up the asset values. There will be greedy bankers to accomodate the same demand. When folks are scared, they sell, borrow, steal to eke out an existence. The fearful bankers will shirk away from accomodating these folks demands for credit. That's why the stock market falls ahead of the economy. It's not because the stock market knew something about the economy. It's the stock market falling that's a manifestation of crowd fear, which will eventually curb borrowing/spending, which will drive the economy into a recession. The opposite transpires after a bust.
The economic problems that surface at the top of the bull markets are the proverbial wall of worry to climb. The economic problems that surface after a long bear markets are the genuine ones. So to predict the stock market, one needs to have a solid understanding of the stock market dynamics, the dynamics of fear and greed, a model to trade around it. Economic models are futile in predicting stock market dynamics. Anyone who disagrees with me, feel free to do so.
Edited by NAV, 11 August 2007 - 04:51 AM.
#5
Posted 11 August 2007 - 05:31 AM
Edited by NAV, 11 August 2007 - 05:33 AM.
#6
Posted 11 August 2007 - 06:41 AM
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=D&yr=2&mn=8&dy=0&i=p30596725455&a=104688425&r=978.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$OEX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=8&i=p65012123784&a=107003689&r=7116.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&i=p97179082638&a=82806185&r=9353.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=6&dy=27&i=p84781333250&a=93045759&r=9365.png
#7
Posted 11 August 2007 - 06:47 AM
#8
Posted 11 August 2007 - 06:50 AM
The future is 90% present and 10% vision.
#9
Posted 11 August 2007 - 06:51 AM
#10
Posted 11 August 2007 - 07:46 AM
After some anlsysis post friday market close, i must conclude that a major bottom is in with about 80% odds ! Have stops in place for the rest 20%.
http://nav-ta.blogsp...ttom-is-in.html
Later today I will post a chart with my super cycle top count and where the wave two high has the highest odds of topping and where wave three 1.618 target is at. By the close 8-20-07 the market will reveal the truth and we will all find out if this is a major bottom or a wave one low. This may be the most important week for the markets since the previous 235 new moons ago in 1987.
Best,
Larry
Edited by LarryT, 11 August 2007 - 07:47 AM.