22 replies to this topic

[NAV]

After some anlsysis post friday market close, i must conclude that a major bottom is in with about 80% odds ! Have stops in place for the rest 20%.

http://nav-ta.blogsp...ttom-is-in.html

Later today I will post a chart with my super cycle top count and where the wave two high has the highest odds of topping and where wave three 1.618 target is at. By the close 8-20-07 the market will reveal the truth and we will all find out if this is a major bottom or a wave one low. This may be the most important week for the markets since the previous 235 new moons ago in 1987.

Best,
Larry

Larry,

Since you are calling this a super cycle top, you are certainly looking for the market to take out the Oct 2002 lows, at some point down the line, right ?

[eminimee]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&i=p76377951514&a=78670243&r=637.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=13&i=p40486332893&a=109189416&r=8030.png

Edited by Teaparty, 11 August 2007 - 08:08 AM.

[LarryT]

After some anlsysis post friday market close, i must conclude that a major bottom is in with about 80% odds ! Have stops in place for the rest 20%.

http://nav-ta.blogsp...ttom-is-in.html

Later today I will post a chart with my super cycle top count and where the wave two high has the highest odds of topping and where wave three 1.618 target is at. By the close 8-20-07 the market will reveal the truth and we will all find out if this is a major bottom or a wave one low. This may be the most important week for the markets since the previous 235 new moons ago in 1987.

Best,
Larry

Larry,

Since you are calling this a super cycle top, you are certainly looking for the market to take out the Oct 2002 lows, at some point down the line, right ?

NAV,
Yes, if the super cycle top is in then at some point in the future that will happen, probably 2011-2012.
Recall my logic for this call is based on the 235 new moon metonic cycle. Therefore either this is it or its 235 new moons from 2007. We will very soon find out if it is.

Larry

[HoseB]

So far, very similar to March low... could easily be the same for a run back to the highs so long as market remains above last week's lows.

[qqqqtrdr]

Statistics wise the bottom appears to be in. This subprime problem was caused by banks and credit unions lending money to anyone with a pulse in 2000 - 2004. These banks, credit union, mortgage houses made lots of money doing it. Also they were able to sell the notes as soon as they made the loan, thus their was no risk on their side. Someone had to hold the paper. The FED raised rates faster than anyone anticipated so it put wrench into refis, and new loans. A year ago the FED cracked down on the banks and credit unions for improper lending of money, so now their are more overseeing of making of loans and higher standards of the banks, so consumers need to show fiscal responsibility again to get a loan. Barry

[emdee]

Nav, Thanks for the nice explanationand chart of the CCI "bottoming" hook on your blog. I notice that even during the -200 CCI head fakes in 2001 (bear market), the market was closing in on a bottom. Good stuff. Thanks for sharing it. One question though...on your blog you state that we are "undeniably in a major bull market". I am curious as to under what dynamics you feel that we will continue in a bull market. I am not in disagreement with your statement but am curious as to your perspective since I have come to appreciate your market savvy. Others whom I respect share the same belief that we will continue in an ongoing bull market. TIA...Mike

[OEXCHAOS]

I am reasonable confident that we are in bear market now. July 17th was the top.

How do you define "Bear Market"?

For trading (look forward), do you have an objective tool?

For ex-post facto (look back) do you use the standard -20% peak to trough?

Does it have to be the same on all indices? A number of the majors?

Just curious. People, especially Bears, talk a good game about armageddon, but it is less helpful when they never pin down what they mean. So, I'm trying to pin you down.

For the record, Last month, I publicly predicted that the Russell would be in a major Bear market shortly and it's heading there fast. I do not, however, have any evidence that the S&P, Dow, and Naz are in one nor are even heading toward one. None of the OBJECTIVE conditions have been met. Not sentiment nor trend wise.

Mark

[NAV]

I am reasonable confident that we are in bear market now. July 17th was the top.

Greenie, that's funny. When did you ever think we were in a bull market ? That's like saying Prechter is bearish now

[NAV]

Nav,

Thanks for the nice explanationand chart of the CCI "bottoming" hook on your blog. I notice that even during the -200 CCI head fakes in 2001 (bear market), the market was closing in on a bottom. Good stuff. Thanks for sharing it.

One question though...on your blog you state that we are "undeniably in a major bull market". I am curious as to under what dynamics you feel that we will continue in a bull market. I am not in disagreement with your statement but am curious as to your perspective since I have come to appreciate your market savvy. Others whom I respect share the same belief that we will continue in an ongoing bull market.

TIA...Mike

Mike,

A few days back on my blog i posted a MACD indicator on weekly charts that showed the bull-bear context. That indicator is still in a undeniable bull territory. Bears could argue that we are in the initial stages of the bear market and eventually that indicator would crossover into the bear territory. But that's pure guess work. And that guesswork has been going on since 2003. I have archived records of many prominent Gurus as to how many times they have called the top. I 'll tell ya, it's just emabarassing.

Now how do i know that the bull market is not over and it will continue. Based on e-wave theory. Read my LT thoughts on my blog that i wrote in 2006. I have explained in detail as to why i think this bull run will continue into 2009. My contention since 2004 has been that we are in a primary degree wave B. Wave B always takes 2-4 times the time as wave A. This is required for the wave C to establish proper divergence with wave A. Otherwise, it's generally a wave 2 retracement. Prechter's contention was we were in a wave 2 from the 2003 bottom. When did he capitulate to the wave B camp ? - After DOW made all time new highs. Well, he had to, because of e-wave rules.

I have watched wave Bs on 30-min charts to daily charts for many years now. They all consume at least twice the amount of time as wave A. Now wave A from 2000-2003 was 3 years. So this wave B should take at least 6 years before it's all said and done. That would put 2009 as the earliest timeframe for the wave B to conclude. And major bull markets like the current one, will go thru extensive topping process, which this one has not gone thru. We don't just drop off a cliff and say "Let's end this bull market". The LT sentiment has been consistently bearish since 2003 bottom. The perma bears need to capitulate big time, before we can call a major top. I think we have a long way to go both in terms of price and time....

Edited by NAV, 11 August 2007 - 11:22 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

Nav,

Thanks for the nice explanationand chart of the CCI "bottoming" hook on your blog. I notice that even during the -200 CCI head fakes in 2001 (bear market), the market was closing in on a bottom. Good stuff. Thanks for sharing it.

Mike, I wanted to thank you for your nice note. We appreciated it. We also wanted to thank you for your contribution to TT.

We hope and plan to continue to justify your support, and more.

Best,
Mark