16 replies to this topic

[Tor]

Evidence to me suggests more down. Of course, like every single other person on this board and all around the world, am looking for a turn up basis liquidity, oversold technicals, sentiment, fundamental cheapness of equyities relative to bonds etc. I just cant figure out if we are there yet but hunch says no. cheers.

Edited by Tor, 11 August 2007 - 08:10 AM.

[HoseB]

For market to ACTUALLY turn technically bearish, it needs to do a string of "bearish things".... hasn't done even ONE significant one yet.

[kaiser soze]

Tor, I'll tell you this : there is not much complacency on this board. Even NAV who thinks a bottom is in and is long ES, is engaged in a discussion about safe money. No offence NAV, just an observation. I know I am scared and intend to ask my broker on Monday about what short term instruments my cash finds itself in. The fear is palpable. So a short term bottom may well be in. But longer term, the "evidence" :multiple 90% down days, central banks rushing in so early to open the spigot, etc. are definitely suggesting more down to come.

[Tor]

Tor,

I'll tell you this : there is not much complacency on this board.

Even NAV who thinks a bottom is in and is long ES, is engaged in a discussion about safe money. No offence NAV, just an observation.

I know I am scared and intend to ask my broker on Monday about what short term instruments my cash finds itself in.

The fear is palpable. So a short term bottom may well be in.

But longer term, the "evidence" :multiple 90% down days, central banks rushing in so early to open the spigot, etc. are definitely suggesting more down to come.

I agree with you on the possiblity of a short term bottm then more devastation to come and really kick those boolz into touch!!

got to stay nimble however,at all times.

[VolPivots]

Definitely bothersome..not only here, but other boards as well. Usually with a bearish slant, most everyone's trying to call the bottom. When it's done, probably an excellent buying opp, but extremes may get even more extreme 1st.

Does this look like it bottomed?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$DJW&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p88259945734&a=86473402&r=3702.png

[NAV]

I wish i did not know anything. But i am too old. I know too many people - Jim Cramer

[underabigw]

MktNeutral,

Nice chart. Kinda explains why the ECB came in so strong with their flood of liquidity!

Definitely bothersome..not only here, but other boards as well. Usually with a bearish slant, most everyone's trying to call the bottom. When it's done, probably an excellent buying opp, but extremes may get even more extreme 1st.

Does this look like it bottomed?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$DJW&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p88259945734&a=86473402&r=3702.png

[NAV]

BTW, the real complacency is in the advisory world. Every guru is suggesting their subscribers to remain short aggresively and most are comfortable staying short here. Why not ? The daily trend is down. One surprise rate cut after hours and most of the shorts will be reverse neiderhoffered. My bottom call is not based on my gut feel. The filth out there makes me gulp vodka faster than that youmast guy. But it's based on time tested technicals. Market rarely shouts "Come buy me. I have bottomed". It comes in the form of subtle clues. Of course there is no need to buy this market in a hurry. There will plenty of opportunies once the IT uptrend gets underway. Analysis and trading are two different things.

Edited by NAV, 11 August 2007 - 09:13 AM.

[NAV]

Even NAV who thinks a bottom is in and is long ES, is engaged in a discussion about safe money. No offence NAV, just an observation.

BTW, i went long and friday, took profits and went flat. Will go long again on Monday.

[Tor]

Even NAV who thinks a bottom is in and is long ES, is engaged in a discussion about safe money. No offence NAV, just an observation.

BTW, i went long and friday, took profits and went flat. Will go long again on Monday.

NAV I love your posts. I cant help but think if we bounce we will go down again, but it is purely guesswork from meas I have no idea how the technicals willbehave in coming days, although i agree there seem to be ingredients for a low, short term.