4 replies to this topic

[LarryT]

Text is on this page, weekly, daily and hourly charts at this web site. Print the charts and this text for your entertainment. By Monday 8-20-07 we should have a good read on this possible super cycle top analysis.

charts here; http://marketcharts....ad.com/WAV.html

July 14, 2007 new moon will be the 235th new moon since the July 13, 1988 new moon and completes one Metonic cycle. Within the 19 year Metonic there are 7 highs and 7 lows for 14 cycle turns. The average date for the 7th high or the 14th cycle turn since the 1988 cycle occurs July 2006.
The 7th high turn for this Metonic cycle has extended to the 235th new moon July 14, 2007 topping the SP-500 July 19th 2007. The first cycle turn of the new 235 new moon cycle can be a high or a low and so can the second turn. Once we know the price and time for the second turn we then know the high low rotation for the next 17 years. The first turn of the new cycle occurs on average December 2007. These Metonic cycle turns have a +/- 5 quarters depending on volatility. For example the previous 235 new moon cycle topped in 1987 within 4 months of the average 2nd quarter 1987. The first turn was a crash low and it occurred 5 quarters early. Turn two was a high and it occurred on time in the average quarter in 1990. The final 7th high was due on average during the 2nd quarter 2007. It is my belief we have seen the final top for this 235 new moon cycle July 19, 2007 and are now on the way down to a fall winter low.

The next larger new moon cycle is the Callipic cycle. This cycle is four Metonic cycles and it last topped in 1929 and will be topped with this 2007 235 new moon cycle. The next larger cycle is the Hipparchic cycle which is four Callipic cycles and this cycle is also due to top with 2007 235 new moon cycle. It last topped in the great mania of the late 1600s with the 1694 bubble. The entire history of the United States of America is topping right now and the odds are very high the July 19th 2007 high was the top of these cycles. Callipic and Hipparchic cycle link;
http://scienceworld....lipicCycle.html

That is the basis for my super cycle top analysis. Now for the charts.

weekly chart here

This weekly chart from the 2000 all time high to present displays an Elliott wave “AB” top. This is a bear market formation due to the waves overlapping from the high in 2004 to the low in 2006. The key to unlock this formation is where will the final wave “C” top? The wave up from the March 2007 low is that key. On this chart I have displayed a regression channel from the 2004 high to the March 2007 low. The upper limit is four standard deviations from the regression line and we see the last week of May and all of June-July has stalled at this limit. Odds are very high when the final high from March is in a drop to the lower limit of the channel will occur. As of this weekend the analysis from the March low has a triangle completing wave 4 and wave 5 topped July 19, 2007 tops the wave.

Daily chart here

Best wave count is wave one down toward the first 235 new moon low due on average 4th quarter 2007 +/- 5 quarters will bottom early Monday near 1429 +/- a point or two and rally for W-2 by Thursday to Monday. What will negate the July 19, 2007 high as the 235 new moon super cycle high? When the daily low of the day is inside the regression channel a higher high than the July high will occur. Third quarter 2007 projected high is at 1584 and would be the next chance at a super cycle top high. If the market does stall below the channel and takes out the low at the 1430 area then the 1.618 extension targets the 1290 area, the 2.618 targets 1169 and the extended 4.25 targets 960. My best wild guess is the 2.618 near 1169 is the low. A bounce back to near the 2006 low by 2009 would be the normal expectation as the 50% retrace would be at 1363 and the .618 retrace would be at 1409 if 1169 was the low for the first leg down of the 19 year super cycle down turn.

60-minute chart here

The high can occur at anytime from 14:30 Thursday to 12:30 Monday. The yellow highlight zone is the Fibonacci normal retrace zone for W-2 and the green zone is the weekly projected price zone. Odds are the high will occur in that zone. Wednesday evening I will have Thursdays projection to help narrow in on the high.

Best,

Larry

[humble1]

thanks for sharing your work and for the interesting moon cycle review. i am sure i will find it helpful; there is always so much to learn as these patterns unfold. and they ALWAYS make an intriguing story, steeped in market history. fwiw: my long term analysis also has a significant moon component overlayed with classic gann analysis. imho, at that mid-july new moon we started the hard down, final, wave of the correction. this wave (the "news" wave and boy do we have it) will end in 2010. more on that SPECIFIC amazing gann-sc-moon-historical nesting date later. and THAT 2010 date will be the best buy in several centuries, imho.

[Cirrus]

Interesting....thanks.

[ogm]

Is it possible to post a long term chart that marks these cycles ? like monthly or quarterly ?

Edited by ogm, 11 August 2007 - 08:50 PM.

[pabletto]

Is it possible to post a long term chart that marks these cycles ? like monthly or quarterly ?

http://www.investire...84e1f6b690c1964


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