2 replies to this topic

[Tor]

This guy is a joker. Says we are in an inflationary boom, with a China Put in place.

So he's a bull right?

I thought he was a bear, then turned bullish. Maybe with the market weakness he is bearish again.

Probably the most useless letter writer I have ever come across. Sorry, no use.

Russell's still going strong at 83
Commentary: Famed adviser has no plans to slow down, let alone retire
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:02 PM ET Aug 6, 2007


LA JOLLA, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- The Sunday sun was still high above George's At the Cove restaurant, overlooking the Pacific in the idyllic California beach town of La Jolla. But Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters since 1958, was ready for dinner. He would be getting up at 3:15 a.m. Monday as always, preparing to write the several thousand words of commentary he posts every day that the market is open.
Russell and his elegant wife Faye are regulars at George's, which is owned by the husband of a previous wife. They just celebrated Russell's 83rd birthday there. But the waitress says he usually arrives early and leaves quickly. Deadlines, and markets, are always on his mind.
A particularly intense week was looming for Russell. The stock market had staggered in the wake of his recanting his tenaciously-held view that the post-2002 rally was a just a blip in a primarily bear market, which angered many of his subscribers. See Mark Hulbert's May 18 column
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU : $INDU
News , chart , profile , more
Last:


Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio
Analyst
Create alertInsider
Discuss
Financials
Sponsored by:
, , ) closed on Friday, July 27, just below its June low of 13,266.73; Russell's reaction: A Dow Jones Transportation Index close below its June low of 4994.82 will confirm a Dow Theory Sell Signal. But Russell's been overriding Dow Theory when he feels like it. See Jan .24, 2006 column
Juncture recognition is key to Russell's reputation. He was unrelentingly bearish after 1966, but dramatically called the 1974 bear market bottom. See March 31, 2003 column
He got out of stocks two months before the 1987 crash. And again he got out of stocks in late 1999, six months before the March 2000 blow-off. Russell remained stubbornly bearish right through the subsequent 2002 slump, when most advisers were faked into thinking that happy days were here again. See July 15, 2003 column
Of course, it's not a completely clean picture. After 1987, Russell didn't get back into stocks until 1989, when they were considerably higher than his exit level. Arguably, the same thing has happened now.
But the point is that Russell is not a stopped clock, as some of my Russellphobe readers, who focus only on this last decade, keep complaining. And by getting out before the big breaks, he has dramatically reduced risk for his subscribers. "In this business, it pays to hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst," he says. According to the Hulbert Financial Digest, Russell is tied for top place as a market timer on a risk-adjusted basis since 1980.
The HFD monitors only Russell's market timing, on the austere grounds that the rich smorgasbord of investment mutterings, musings and mentions that he serves up each day does not lend itself to systematic tracking. But these ideas are often cited gratefully by my equally numerous Russellphile readers.
Russell in his 84th year looks absolutely, extraordinarily, wonderful. He's been in La Jolla since 1961 and adores it. He apparently never travels or takes vacations, and he rarely gives interviews. His 10-minute commute is a worthwhile disruption, Faye Russell says, because the office provides him with his only social life. Russell does admit to 20 minutes on the exercise cycle after the market closes. And this week he cut back his Wednesday comment, saying he plans to rest midweek in order to "keep doing this for the next 15 or 20 years."
It looks distinctly doable. Faye Russell, 32 years her husband's junior and a corporate lawyer who says she went back to school because she assumed she would be a young widow, now wryly predicts he will outlive her.
Russell comes from an old South Carolina Sephardic family. He says that his father, a civil engineer, was advised by the famed financier Bernard Baruch, a friend whose background was very similar, to lose his southern accent when he came to Manhattan, where Russell was born and raised.
Russell himself served in World War II as a bombardier in the U.S. Air Force, flying more than 20 missions, an experience that obviously marked him profoundly. Then Russell worked as a textile designer, studying the stock market in his spare time. Married three times, and still on remarkably good terms with his ex-wives, he has five children, plus grandchildren who are being raised Catholic Russell says he is not drawn to organized religion. A sister is retired in Greenwich, Conn. An actress daughter, Betsy, who according to Wikipedia "endeared herself to young men across the globe with some nude scenes in 1983's "Private School,", has now resumed her career in fiancé Mark Burg's hugely successful "Saw" series. Russell doesn't particularly like these movies, but appears impressed by their return on investment.
Although Russell has ruthlessly bugged his subscribers into getting online he says he only has 500 unreconstructed snail-mailers out of some 10,000 Russell turns out to be still something of a print primitive. He reads several newspapers a day. He even eschews email on weekends.
What about the market? With Russell, what you read is what you get, not surprising when you consider how much of his life is spent writing. But what you get is nuanced and Delphic, which I believe is an honest reflection of his subtle and sensitive intellect. And, importantly, his intuition. See March 31, 2003 column
I asked Russell directly: Is there a "Greenspan put"? Have the authorities been committed to maintaining the markets, risking ultimate collapse?
In his esoteric way, Russell has excited his readers, who tend to become devoted Russellologists, by hinting that he thinks equity markets in general and the gold market in particular are being manipulated in the interests of an inflationary boom.
But, needless to say, Russell didn't answer me directly. He said he does read Lemetropolecafe.com, the leading proponent of the manipulation theory. See Oct. 12 column See http://www.lemetropolecafe.com/
But Russell's not about to endorse it. He pointedly says that his favorite columnist right now is Bloomberg.com's Caroline Baum, a vociferous critic of the view that official-sector intervention, in the form of the rumored "Plunge Protection Team," exists at all.
On the other hand, Russell says flatly that "the central banks won't let deflation happen." (Hmm ... and how, exactly, will they do that?) If there's a put, Russell quips, it's a "China put," the unprecedented demand unleashed by China's economic awakening. See Mark Hulbert's May 13, 2007 column
Related Blog Posts & Articles

[ogm]

I don't get Russell's newsletter, but I think he nailed it with the "China Put" I'd even say.. World Put. The world can not allow the US financial system to fail. Too much at stake. My only hope that the Fed will enforce tougher lending standards and the current excessive debt situation will be allowed to improve by raising credit quality in the future.

[Tor]

I don't get Russell's newsletter, but I think he nailed it with the "China Put"

I'd even say.. World Put.

The world can not allow the US financial system to fail. Too much at stake.

My only hope that the Fed will enforce tougher lending standards and the current excessive debt situation will be allowed to improve by raising credit quality in the future.

You know he's been a bear all the way up from the lows of 2003? Then he became a bull within weeks of a top saying about the china put.

Maybe he has gone bearish again now?

I dont sub for it eaith, and this is based on what i have read or heard.

thanks.