14 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

i read this somewhere in the morning ... it came quite striking , according to the creator of securities analysis , there are three forces behind a market crash. 1- The manipulation of stocks. 2- The lending of money to buy stocks. 3- Excessive optimism. we currently have the first two in unseen proportions but the third one maybe has to get ripe before we get our Oct 1929

[rkd80]

i read this somewhere in the morning ... it came quite striking , according to the creator of securities analysis , there are three forces behind a market crash.

1- The manipulation of stocks.
2- The lending of money to buy stocks.
3- Excessive optimism.


we currently have the first two in unseen proportions but the third one maybe has to get ripe before we get our Oct 1929

xd,

i dont think anyone will argue that the market is in a pretty sorry shape right now. But #3 should be #1 in your list for what ultimately leads to downfalls. I think it has been a long accepted wisdom now for the past many months that until we get that frothy optimism, no significant sell-off can happen. You know, with record shorting and all. The only question I have is whether this run-up that will ultimately generate the optimism is trade able on the long side.

rkd

[A-ha]

What I hear that record shorting was actually done by PPT to prevent such an event.

[Cirrus]

i read this somewhere in the morning ... it came quite striking , according to the creator of securities analysis , there are three forces behind a market crash.

1- The manipulation of stocks.
2- The lending of money to buy stocks.
3- Excessive optimism.


we currently have the first two in unseen proportions but the third one maybe has to get ripe before we get our Oct 1929

How can anyone that fully understands the global current monetary environment and global central banking system think that there is even a remote chance of a market crash UNLESS the Fed and Central Banks allow it? Moreover, they would have to be insane to allow one in this environment with a debt crisis and overleveraged US consumer.

They just demonstrated that they are willing to 'print' money to buy worthless mortgage backed securities. We all know they can, through their market agents print money and buy index futures. The economy can fall of a cliff and the Fed can still prop up the equtiy markets.

If there's anyone here attempting to profit from a crash you need your head examined. The risk reward for that trade is akin to playing the lottery. I'm not saying you can't profit from shorting equities, groups and/or stocks. But trading for a crash?

Look at how well the energy stocks have held up in the decline. IMHO CL is the 'new gold' as the central banks have huge reserves of gold they can dump to control price but oil? This is where smart money will go to protect them against inflation--oil and energy stocks. I posted this chart several trading days ago as I stated it was a way to buy CL reserves for less than 50 cents a barrel from my guestimate calculations:

http://stockcharts.c...26075&r=375.png

[kc135a]

i read this somewhere in the morning ... it came quite striking , according to the creator of securities analysis , there are three forces behind a market crash.

1- The manipulation of stocks.
2- The lending of money to buy stocks.
3- Excessive optimism.


we currently have the first two in unseen proportions but the third one maybe has to get ripe before we get our Oct 1929

Got it right, ...., but about 2 years early.

KC

[A-ha]

When there is only one goverment and one global economy, one Fed, the crash will be impossible unless they want it. Otherwise, it is always a possibility.

Can Fed make a decision to inject during the trading hours or it is an overnite process

Regarding CL, you are wrong imo. Or the army of commercials whose primary trading instruments are commodities are the biggest suckers. IMO one of the major reasons CL went up was the dollar, not demand supply

How can anyone that fully understands the global current monetary environment and global central banking system think that there is even a remote chance of a market crash UNLESS the Fed and Central Banks allow it? Moreover, they would have to be insane to allow one in this environment with a debt crisis and overleveraged US consumer.

They just demonstrated that they are willing to 'print' money to buy worthless mortgage backed securities. We all know they can, through their market agents print money and buy index futures. The economy can fall of a cliff and the Fed can still prop up the equtiy markets.

If there's anyone here attempting to profit from a crash you need your head examined. The risk reward for that trade is akin to playing the lottery. I'm not saying you can't profit from shorting equities, groups and/or stocks. But trading for a crash?

Look at how well the energy stocks have held up in the decline. IMHO CL is the 'new gold' as the central banks have huge reserves of gold they can dump to control price but oil? This is where smart money will go to protect them against inflation--oil and energy stocks. I posted this chart several trading days ago as I stated it was a way to buy CL reserves for less than 50 cents a barrel from my guestimate calculations:

http://stockcharts.c...26075&r=375.png

Edited by A-ha, 13 August 2007 - 09:53 AM.

[SandStorm]

i read this somewhere in the morning ... it came quite striking , according to the creator of securities analysis , there are three forces behind a market crash.

1- The manipulation of stocks.
2- The lending of money to buy stocks.
3- Excessive optimism.


we currently have the first two in unseen proportions but the third one maybe has to get ripe before we get our Oct 1929

How can anyone that fully understands the global current monetary environment and global central banking system think that there is even a remote chance of a market crash UNLESS the Fed and Central Banks allow it? Moreover, they would have to be insane to allow one in this environment with a debt crisis and overleveraged US consumer.

They just demonstrated that they are willing to 'print' money to buy worthless mortgage backed securities. We all know they can, through their market agents print money and buy index futures. The economy can fall of a cliff and the Fed can still prop up the equtiy markets.

If there's anyone here attempting to profit from a crash you need your head examined. The risk reward for that trade is akin to playing the lottery. I'm not saying you can't profit from shorting equities, groups and/or stocks. But trading for a crash?

Look at how well the energy stocks have held up in the decline. IMHO CL is the 'new gold' as the central banks have huge reserves of gold they can dump to control price but oil? This is where smart money will go to protect them against inflation--oil and energy stocks. I posted this chart several trading days ago as I stated it was a way to buy CL reserves for less than 50 cents a barrel from my guestimate calculations:

But you can't expect theory = reality. The FED can't print and can't buy stocks continuously against trillions and trillions of selling when the economy falls off a cliff. Fundamental always works -- eventually.

[beta]

Cirrus wrote:

How can anyone that fully understands the global current monetary environment and global central banking system think that there is even a remote chance of a market crash UNLESS the Fed and Central Banks allow it? Moreover, they would have to be insane to allow one in this environment with a debt crisis and overleveraged US consumer.

They just demonstrated that they are willing to 'print' money to buy worthless mortgage backed securities. We all know they can, through their market agents print money and buy index futures. The economy can fall of a cliff and the Fed can still prop up the equtiy markets.

If there's anyone here attempting to profit from a crash you need your head examined. The risk reward for that trade is akin to playing the lottery. I'm not saying you can't profit from shorting equities, groups and/or stocks. But trading for a crash?

Great post.

Da House Always Wins.

Edited by beta, 13 August 2007 - 10:07 AM.

[Cirrus]

i read this somewhere in the morning ... it came quite striking , according to the creator of securities analysis , there are three forces behind a market crash.

1- The manipulation of stocks.
2- The lending of money to buy stocks.
3- Excessive optimism.


we currently have the first two in unseen proportions but the third one maybe has to get ripe before we get our Oct 1929

How can anyone that fully understands the global current monetary environment and global central banking system think that there is even a remote chance of a market crash UNLESS the Fed and Central Banks allow it? Moreover, they would have to be insane to allow one in this environment with a debt crisis and overleveraged US consumer.

They just demonstrated that they are willing to 'print' money to buy worthless mortgage backed securities. We all know they can, through their market agents print money and buy index futures. The economy can fall of a cliff and the Fed can still prop up the equtiy markets.

If there's anyone here attempting to profit from a crash you need your head examined. The risk reward for that trade is akin to playing the lottery. I'm not saying you can't profit from shorting equities, groups and/or stocks. But trading for a crash?

Look at how well the energy stocks have held up in the decline. IMHO CL is the 'new gold' as the central banks have huge reserves of gold they can dump to control price but oil? This is where smart money will go to protect them against inflation--oil and energy stocks. I posted this chart several trading days ago as I stated it was a way to buy CL reserves for less than 50 cents a barrel from my guestimate calculations:

But you can't expect theory = reality. The FED can't print and can't buy stocks continuously against trillions and trillions of selling when the economy falls off a cliff. Fundamental always works -- eventually.

Yes, they can. They can 'print' $1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 with the touch of a single button. In other inflationary periods the government had to buy paper and ink--not even that is required. I'm not saying things are going the way of the Weimar Republic. I am saying that IF they were to allow a deflationary collapse they would be strung up in the streets a la Mussolini. Heck, Congress would 'revoke their charter' before they even got there.

[A-ha]

so they tipped off everybody in the United States, Canada and Mexico without thinking of their added difficulties. Entire globe knew what they were supposed to do. And between their buying and ours, uncle harry and cousin marry were going to get all hunky. thats quite funny.

Edited by A-ha, 13 August 2007 - 10:51 AM.