14 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Market crash. Oh yes, the whole globe knows about it.


Even the fools....

[A-ha]

there is a difference between bull and bear operations and there is a huge difference between panics and bear rides.

Before the panics , there is a wide expectation for a sell off, even crash. And when they recognize it, like after %10 or so, and when the long waited mother of all short squeezes doesnt arrive and perhaps when there is no more liq. injection everybody run to the door all together, usually on the day of reconning.

Market crash. Oh yes, the whole globe knows about it.


Even the fools....

Edited by A-ha, 13 August 2007 - 12:06 PM.

[arbman]

Exactly, we are in that period where the long term investors are looking to see how the market will meaningfully climb a wall of worry and there is a big one right now. If they don't see much liquidity in the horizon, they will press the sell buttons again... I would think if the market gives more discount, everone will feel comfortable sitting on their positions, 8-9% is not enough here, I would think 10-12% would be a lot more appropriate discount of the future problems from here. Then the market can work the current environment off with a trading range first and then chew the bad news by rallying... Does anyone believe here the market will not sell the news again if it tries to rally from here, I doubt it. This will make the coming 10 wk Oct low a very tough period again. All of the gains from here should be pretty much given back, but perhaps not more (depending on how it rallies). I would feel a lot more comfortable to hold through the winter, if the market gives a bit more discount and accumulate into any Oct decline... - kisa

[A-ha]

Economic cycles are inevitable. They can be delayed by orchestrated CB operations but how long?
Global economies are in the earliest stage of the contraction, which will be predicted by stock markets well ahead of it.

Dollar will plunge little further but you can be sure that this final plunge will not boost stock market as much as expected. New highs possible on SPX.. like %5 or so thats it

Exactly, we are in that period where the long term investors are looking to see how the market will meaningfully climb a wall of worry and there is a big one right now. If they don't see much liquidity in the horizon, they will press the sell buttons again...

I would think if the market gives more discount, everone will feel comfortable sitting on their positions, 8-9% is not enough here, I would think 10-12% would be a lot more appropriate discount of the future problems from here. Then the market can work the current environment off with a trading range first and then chew the bad news by rallying...

Does anyone believe here the market will not sell the news again if it tries to rally from here, I doubt it. This will make the coming 10 wk Oct low a very tough period again. All of the gains from here should be pretty much given back, but perhaps not more (depending on how it rallies).

I would feel a lot more comfortable to hold through the winter, if the market gives a bit more discount and accumulate into any Oct decline...

- kisa

[arbman]

One thing that's clear here, the Fed will not waste their firepower (rate cuts) before the market corrects more meaningfully, Bernanke is trying to paint his image as a tough inflation fighter according to the Fed traditions. So, one thing this Fed will not do is to blow the bubble further. They will do temporary market operations to calm the markets down, but they are simply looking to deflate the credit bubbles slowly, I think they already passed the significant threshold to sustain the current market balances though. The best thing is a long term trading range... We'll see... - kisa