5 replies to this topic

[humble1]

i thought we would have a rate cut early this week and predicted that here, last week. it is clear now i was wrong and why i was wrong and i think i/we have learned a lot from that, which all of you surely have sniffed out by now: the fed is not going to target the economy and the whole financial system with a rate cut; it believes the problem is contained within a relative few pockets of risk re-pricing. it is very wrong, imho, but that does not matter. what matters is what IS. and what IS is that the fed is waaaay behind the curve on the economy and that will bring it HUGE criticism down the line and a loss of confidence in the monetary and financial system, with the ultimate resignation of bernanke. there is really not a hell of a lot it can do about the run on funds and the incipient run on banks, but who in the soon-to-be maddening crowd will accept that ? p.s. greenspan knew when to get out of dodge !

[skyymaster]

i thought we would have a rate cut early this week and predicted that here, last week. it is clear now i was wrong and why i was wrong and i think i/we have learned a lot from that, which all of you surely have sniffed out by now:

the fed is not going to target the economy and the whole financial system with a rate cut; it believes the problem is contained within a relative few pockets of risk re-pricing. it is very wrong, imho, but that does not matter. what matters is what IS. and what IS is that the fed is waaaay behind the curve on the economy and that will bring it HUGE criticism down the line and a loss of confidence in the monetary and financial system, with the ultimate resignation of bernanke.

there is really not a hell of a lot it can do about the run on funds and the incipient run on banks, but who in the soon-to-be maddening crowd will accept that ?


p.s. greenspan knew when to get out of dodge !

If they oust Bernanke and bring back Greenspan from retirement, wouldn't that light a match under this market.

[humble1]

yes, it would. greenspan is pretty old though; perhaps it will be his clone. but, i think that is many moons away. the resignation of a fed chairman is right up there with the resignation of a president. there will have to be lots of sustained criticism and we are not even close to that. i am thinking that will not happen until late 2010. so, it's not something to trade on for a LONG time !

[relax]

what IS and what IS not - sorry but none of that really matters it gets me completely confused, so i focus on my charts the rest is a matter of perception and we all know the power of perception so we might have a crisis, well if the stock market never perceives that crisis, well who cares average joe may be hit, but the elite (in other words the stock market) will make sure that they don't get hit if i can give advice, then look at your charts - all these words and opinions will not make you see what you need to see

[humble1]

relax: thank you for your comment. folks who got their money out of SMG money market funds IN TIME might disagree with you.

[relax]

Hi humble of course, that's truly tragic with people not being able to get their money out i'm just looking at it in terms of the stock indices, which is also getting truly tragic ;-)