8 replies to this topic

[NAV]

I watch the P/C ratios daily. The DOW folks were buying more calls than puts all the way into close. So were the OEX folks. DOW options folks are rarely wrong on the intraday direction and the OEX folks who are contrarians are a bit early always. In my recollection, i have not seen a day when both these groups were so bullish and the market had such a nasty close. This market is a contrarians nightmare. On one hand, the media is pounding hard on the financial armageddon theme, which is very bullish. On the other hand, all these bottom picking efforts are bearish. I guess they cancel out each other, which makes the situation neutral. It's then no wonder that we are still trading at the same levels on the ES as on Aug 6 and the XLF, QQQQ and RUT are trading higher than on Aug 6 and yet the fear is palpable.

[IndexTrader]

I watch the P/C ratios daily. The DOW folks were buying more calls than puts all the way into close. So were the OEX folks. DOW options folks are rarely wrong on the intraday direction and the OEX folks who are contrarians are a bit early always. In my recollection, i have not seen a day when both these groups were so bullish and the market had such a nasty close.

This market is a contrarians nightmare. On one hand, the media is pounding hard on the financial armageddon theme, which is very bullish. On the other hand, all these bottom picking efforts are bearish. I guess they cancel out each other, which makes the situation neutral. It's then no wonder that we are still trading at the same levels on the ES as on Aug 6 and the XLF, QQQQ and RUT are trading higher than on Aug 6 and yet the fear is palpable.

I don't think this has been a "contrarians nightmare" at all. Every day we have the media interviewing another expert who tells us not to panic, tells us about the bargains, etc etc. Maybe it's just my perception. That said, contrary only works at the top and the bottom.....twice. The rest of the time is about following the trend.

IT

[dcengr]

Don't get more confusing than this...

[NAV]

I watch the P/C ratios daily. The DOW folks were buying more calls than puts all the way into close. So were the OEX folks. DOW options folks are rarely wrong on the intraday direction and the OEX folks who are contrarians are a bit early always. In my recollection, i have not seen a day when both these groups were so bullish and the market had such a nasty close.

This market is a contrarians nightmare. On one hand, the media is pounding hard on the financial armageddon theme, which is very bullish. On the other hand, all these bottom picking efforts are bearish. I guess they cancel out each other, which makes the situation neutral. It's then no wonder that we are still trading at the same levels on the ES as on Aug 6 and the XLF, QQQQ and RUT are trading higher than on Aug 6 and yet the fear is palpable.

I don't think this has been a "contrarians nightmare" at all. Every day we have the media interviewing another expert who tells us not to panic, tells us about the bargains, etc etc. Maybe it's just my perception. That said, contrary only works at the top and the bottom.....twice. The rest of the time is about following the trend.

IT

I am sure you read the newspapers too

Edited by NAV, 14 August 2007 - 11:13 PM.

[IndexTrader]

I watch the P/C ratios daily. The DOW folks were buying more calls than puts all the way into close. So were the OEX folks. DOW options folks are rarely wrong on the intraday direction and the OEX folks who are contrarians are a bit early always. In my recollection, i have not seen a day when both these groups were so bullish and the market had such a nasty close.

This market is a contrarians nightmare. On one hand, the media is pounding hard on the financial armageddon theme, which is very bullish. On the other hand, all these bottom picking efforts are bearish. I guess they cancel out each other, which makes the situation neutral. It's then no wonder that we are still trading at the same levels on the ES as on Aug 6 and the XLF, QQQQ and RUT are trading higher than on Aug 6 and yet the fear is palpable.

I don't think this has been a "contrarians nightmare" at all. Every day we have the media interviewing another expert who tells us not to panic, tells us about the bargains, etc etc. Maybe it's just my perception. That said, contrary only works at the top and the bottom.....twice. The rest of the time is about following the trend.

IT

I am sure you read the newspapers too

Newspaper? Hell no! Are they still in business?

IT

EDIT: Just online.

Edited by IndexTrader, 14 August 2007 - 11:20 PM.

[NAV]

IT, One more thing. I have observed this board for 4 full years. I don't know of any trend followers here (maybe there are, but i am not familiar with them, with the exception of Fib_1618 and Gary Smith). All those trend followers are in Jack Shwager's "Market wizards". Most here are top/bottom pickers or swing traders. Those who are trying to go long here are not trend followers. By the same token, those were going short at the top were not trend followers. Trend followers don't anticipate trend reversals. They don't pick their spot at trend reversal areas. They are not market timers. They are the ones who wait for a trend to get established and buy every dip along the way (or short every rally in a bear trend), until their objective definition of trend in their chosen timeframe changes.

Edited by NAV, 14 August 2007 - 11:35 PM.

[ken29]

As always, excellent commentary NAV

[IndexTrader]

I think the point is that once you've picked the top or bottom, you by definition have to sit with your position and follow the trend to lower/higher prices if you would hope to make any real money. The top/bottom picker is simply trying to get in at the beginning...an endeavor that most, whether they are here or elsewhere, are unsuccessful at. IT

[Cirrus]

I think the point is that once you've picked the top or bottom, you by definition have to sit with your position and follow the trend to lower/higher prices if you would hope to make any real money. The top/bottom picker is simply trying to get in at the beginning...an endeavor that most, whether they are here or elsewhere, are unsuccessful at.

IT

Indextrader...great to have you back.