15 replies to this topic

[peregrine]

Semi: Does the fact that we closed above COMPQ 2440 today mean that we can rally a bit here because we avoided your Doomsday channel.....but the new volume surge at the lows means longer term expectations to re-enter the channel at a later date ?

[SemiBizz]

Yes, that day you are talking about is 1/3/01 ... Low 2251.71 Volume - 3.2B. I would expect a .50R test of 2491-2511 and then a direct plunge to 2251 per ABC Down... 2491 is the B point of the previous ABC Down, I suspect the volume will lighten up there and down we go.

Edited by SemiBizz, 16 August 2007 - 03:30 PM.

[sglasson]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=t14580458926&r=1936.png
http://stockcharts.c...7259&r=4264.png

ugh - just tryin to apply your methods to iwm

[SemiBizz]

IWM is a derivative and those signals can be misleading. Should always cross reference the volume with the underlying index. I think the $RUT Bears have been somewhat disappointed of late, but as I noted earlier... this selloff is not a retail panic, it is a fund panic/liquidation. So it's all about % of stock ownership by institutions... i.e. Big Cap Stocks.

[sglasson]

what's you're take on the near equal vol high vol candles on the 8/9th - you would think todays candle is more significant in relation to the 8/9th vs 2/27 - at least st anyway - thanks

[SemiBizz]

What you have to look at is VOLUME MOMENTUM. Today was 3rd day in a row of progressively higher volume on the way down. The hourly and daily charts now point to 2490-92 area as significant for a test. The fact that we were able to break the 2/27 low on stronger volume has opened Pandora's Box to test some lower High volume swing lows... My ABC calcs lead me to 2251.