20 replies to this topic

[Trend-Signals]

With the series of capitulation leading to the Reversal Capitulation, we have a bottom which will lead to a meaningful rally.

All market participants are in agreement to sell-the-rally after a few days bounce; however, I see that markets are at a good point where we could see a sustained rally.

We now have 10% correction which is a bull market correction closing above major support area.

REVERSAL FACTORS:

*** Positive Divergences
*** Climactic Volumes
*** Extremely oversold breadth
*** VIX Breakout to 1997 level
*** Reversal Formation which we have seen like $SSEC with huge hammer formation.

I call the recent "subprime" fiasco used as an excuse to sell 10%. Of course, if you are a bear, we are in bear market and we have seen the top at SPX 1550.

Almost all market participants are in agreement now that we are in bear market and will not see DOW 14000 again - only after 3-4 weeks.

Market is expert with creating "Drama" so, to me, market sentiment can quickly change.

But for now, market formation is bottom for a meaningful rally/bounce.



http://www.stockchar...09398&r=568.png
http://www.stockchar...77535&r=859.png
http://www.stockchar...40300&r=617.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p73797548221&a=79285156&r=517.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&i=p22232131775&a=76929034&r=724.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=4&mn=8&dy=0&i=p49229126946&a=78987374&r=825.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p31631774778&a=76966992&r=329.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&i=p06542340040&a=76929550&r=152.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&i=p21609042622&a=76909044&r=764.png
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=4&mn=6&dy=0&i=p22094758617&a=77295648&r=443.png


VIX high 37.50 +/-, 2002 or 1997 de ja vu when market rallied 60% after making the bottom at 730 then rallied to 1170.

Then, another VIX spike in 1998.


http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&st=1990-01-01&i=p25033596000&a=78540888&r=423.png

[ogm]

Positive divergences are now everywhere. MCO's, RSI's MACD's... on XLF, IYR, individual stocks, Indexes... Everywhere.. Too many charts to post. Combined with the real fear we had.. I'd say this thing has a lot of potential.

[Trend-Signals]

Positive divergences are now everywhere. MCO's, RSI's MACD's... on XLF, IYR, individual stocks, Indexes... Everywhere.. Too many charts to post. Combined with the real fear we had.. I'd say this thing has a lot of potential.

These formations are clearly reversal. Traders are too fearful now. No one is daring to be bullish.

Almost 98% traders are bearish...


QQQQ & SSO Long 2x
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png

DOW & MID Cap LONG 2x
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png

SP500 & Russell 200 Long
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png

QQQQ & SP500 Short 1x
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png

DOW & Mid Cap Short 1x
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png

QQQQ & SP500 Short 2x
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png

DOW & Mid Cap Short 2x
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png

SP500 & Russell2000 Short
http://www.stockchar...00102&r=822.png


[b]Huge Hammer - de ja vu

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SSEC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p02439948996&a=66381250&r=667.png

[U.F.O.]

What's the best positive divergence you guys have seen on a QQQQ indicator? U.F.O.

[Trend-Signals]

What's the best positive divergence you guys have seen on a QQQQ indicator?

U.F.O.

Hi UFO,


Qs P.D. is any different from other ETFs or markets?

P.D. is not a trading signal and is subject to market condition and to cycle...

Edited by Trend-Signals, 16 August 2007 - 08:55 PM.

[U.F.O.]

OK...what about $SPX or $INDU? I'm just trying to get a feel for a good example of a righteous positive divergence in one of the broader indices' indicators, which one doesn't really matter. U.F.O.

Edited by U.F.O., 16 August 2007 - 08:57 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

PROBLEM: $NIKK IS MAKING NEW LOW!!

http://investorshub....age_id=22141401







QUIET CROWD - BECAUSE $NIKK?

Everyone is quiet ... is it because $NIKK is trading down?

OK...what about $SPX or $INDU? I'm just trying to get a feel for a good example of a righteous positive divergence in one of the broader indices' indicators, which one doesn't really matter.

U.F.O.

broader indices' indicators,

is there such thing?

Edited by Trend-Signals, 16 August 2007 - 09:09 PM.

[U.F.O.]

There is. The reason I ask is I follow QQQQ's and went looking after your and ogm's posts and didn't see any positive divergences worth mentioning. I'm just trying to see what you're seeing. U.F.O.

[ogm]

This is the tip of the Iceberg..... NDX stuff looks similar.

Edited by ogm, 16 August 2007 - 09:12 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

YEN traded to resistance.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$XJY&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p75413615740&a=66381239&r=76.png

Edited by Trend-Signals, 16 August 2007 - 09:17 PM.