How to benefit:
If the ratio is 1.25 or less, a buy signal is given. Stay in the buy allocation, using the allocation in either method #1 or #2 below, until a sell signal is given (ratio of 2.00 or higher). Stay in the sell allocation (100% G fund) until another buy signal is given.
Trading results using the survey as a contrarian indicator. Two allocations:
Method > 1.99 = Sell < 1.26 = Buy 2006 Result
2007 Result*
1) 100% G 100% S +27.96% +9.77%
2) 100% G 35%C, 35%S, 30% I +25.37% +6.79%
* thru 8/16/07
Week S&P 500 S&P 500 Buy/
From: To: Bulls Bears Ratio gain/loss Close Votes Sell
08/20/07 - 08/24/07 37% 49% 0.76 -1 494 B
08/13/07 - 08/17/07 52% 32% 1.63 -1 444 B
08/06/07 - 08/10/07 48% 34% 1.41 -1 1.44% 1453.64 409 B
07/30/07 - 08/03/07 45% 41% 1.10 -1 -1.77% 1433.06 391 B
07/23/07 - 07/27/07 57% 28% 2.04 -1 -4.90% 1458.95 373 S
07/16/07 - 07/20/07 54% 31% 1.74 -1 -1.19% 1534.10 413 S
07/09/07 - 07/13/07 47% 36% 1.31 -1 1.44% 1552.50 373 S
07/02/07 - 07/06/07 61% 23% 2.65 -1 1.80% 1530.44 380 S
06/25/07 - 06/29/07 46% 37% 1.24 -1 0.05% 1503.35 390 B
06/18/07 - 06/22/07 52% 30% 1.73 -1 -1.98% 1502.56 396 B
06/11/07 - 06/15/07 46% 38% 1.21 -1 1.67% 1532.91 434 B
06/04/07 - 06/08/07 66% 18% 3.67 -1 -1.87% 1507.67 444 S
05/29/07 - 06/01/07 46% 36% 1.28 -1 1.36% 1536.34 395 B
05/21/07 - 05/25/07 46% 37% 1.24 -1 -0.46% 1515.73 361 B
05/14/07 - 05/18/07 45% 39% 1.15 -1 1.12% 1522.75 440 B
05/07/07 - 05/11/07 46% 36% 1.28 -1 0.02% 1505.85 430 S
04/30/07 - 05/04/07 59% 24% 2.46 -1 0.77% 1505.61 416 S
04/23/07 - 04/27/07 49% 34% 1.44 -1 0.65% 1494.07 419 S
04/16/07 - 04/20/07 45% 34% 1.32 -1 2.17% 1484.35 350 S
04/09/07 - 04/13/07 63% 20% 3.15 -1 0.63% 1452.85 381 S
04/02/07 - 04/06/07 44% 37% 1.19 -1 1.61% 1443.76 392 B
03/26/07 - 03/30/07 54% 26% 2.08 -1 -1.06% 1420.86 439 S
03/19/07 - 03/23/07 39% 40% 0.98 -1 3.62% 1436.11 401 B
03/12/07 - 03/16/07 44% 36% 1.22 -1 -1.20% 1385.95 360 B
03/05/07 - 03/09/07 38% 42% 0.90 -1 1.13% 1402.85 390 B
02/26/07 - 03/02/07 56% 22% 2.55 -1 -4.41% 1387.17 357 S
02/20/07 - 02/23/07 56% 26% 2.15 -1 -0.30% 1451.19 316 S
02/12/07 - 02/16/07 56% 22% 2.55 -1 1.22% 1455.54 312 S
02/05/07 - 02/09/07 51% 30% 1.70 -1 -0.71% 1438.06 307 B
01/29/07 - 02/02/07 44% 35% 1.26 -1 1.84% 1448.39 309 B
01/22/07 - 01/26/07 40% 38% 1.05 -1 -0.58% 1422.18 278 B
01/16/07 - 01/19/07 51% 30% 1.70 -1 -0.02% 1430.50 366 S
01/08/07 - 01/12/07 54% 30% 1.80 -1 1.49% 1430.73 133 S
01/02/07 - 01/05/07 45% 28% 1.61 -1 -0.61% 1409.71 134 S
12/26/06 - 12/29/06 46% 32% 1.44 -1 0.53% 1418.30 137 S
12/18/06 - 12/22/06 69% 14% 4.93 -1 -1.14% 1410.76 147 S
12/11/06 - 12/15/06 58% 18% 3.22 -1 1.22% 1427.09 158 S
12/04/06 - 12/08/06 56% 24% 2.33 -1 0.94% 1409.84 310 S
11/27/06 - 12/01/06 48% 29% 1.66 -1 -0.30% 1396.71 231 S
11/20/06 - 11/24/06 56% 26% 2.15 -1 -0.02% 1400.95 282 S
11/13/06 - 11/17/06 47% 29% 1.62 -1 1.47% 1401.20 184 B
11/06/06 - 11/10/06 37% 40% 0.93 -1 1.22% 1380.90 313 B
10/30/06 - 11/03/06 53% 31% 1.71 -1 -0.95% 1364.30 248 S
10/23/06 - 10/27/06 49% 32% 1.53 -1 0.64% 1377.34 215 S
10/16/06 - 10/20/06 59% 28% 2.11 -1 0.22% 1368.60 89 S
10/10/06 - 10/13/06 43% 45% 0.96 -1 1.19% 1365.62 94 B
10/02/06 - 10/06/06 46% 38% 1.21 -1 1.03% 1349.58 146 B
09/25/06 - 09/29/06 45% 39% 1.15 -1 1.60% 1335.85 120 B
09/18/06 - 09/22/06 44% 32% 1.38 -1 -0.39% 1314.78 255 B
09/11/06 - 09/15/06 25% 54% 0.46 -1 1.61% 1319.87 237 B
09/05/06 - 09/08/06 41% 42% 0.98 -1 -0.92% 1298.92 248 B
08/28/06 - 09/01/06 36% 29% 1.24 -1 1.16% 1311.01 185 B
08/21/06 - 08/25/06 42% 30% 1.40 -1 -0.48% 1296.00 182 S
08/14/06 - 08/18/06 49% 31% 1.58 -1 2.81% 1302.30 286 S
08/07/06 - 08/04/06 54% 22% 2.45 -1 -0.99% 1266.74 267 S
07/31/06 - 08/04/06 51% 25% 2.04 -1 0.06% 1279.36 258 S
07/24/06 - 07/28/06 35% 46% 0.76 -1 3.08% 1278.55 141 B
07/17/06 - 07/21/06 60% 27% 2.22 -1 0.33% 1240.29 247 S
07/10/06 - 07/14/06 56% 24% 2.33 -1 -2.31% 1236.20 267 S
07/03/06 - 07/07/06 66% 15% 4.40 -1 -0.37% 1265.48 287 S
06/26/06 - 06/30/06 54% 23% 2.35 -1 2.07% 1270.20 256 S
06/19/06 - 06/23/06 58% 23% 2.52 -1 -0.56% 1244.50 283 S
06/12/06 - 06/16/06 41% 39% 1.05 -1 -0.06% 1251.54 260 B
06/05/06 - 06/09/06 55% 30% 1.83 -1 -2.79% 1252.30 S
05/30/06 - 06/02/06 66% 18% 3.67 -1 0.63% 1288.22 S
05/22/06 - 05/26/06 40% 43% 0.93 -1 1.04% 1280.16 B
05/15/06 - 05/19/06 46% 36% 1.28 -1 -1.87% 1267.03 S
05/08/06 - 05/12/06 61% 25% 2.44 -1 -2.60% 1291.24 S
05/01/06 - 05/05/06 56% 25% 2.24 -1 1.16% 1325.76 S
04/24/06 - 04/28/06 52% 30% 1.73 -1 -0.05% 1310.61 B
04/17/06 - 04/21/06 48% 31% 1.55 -1 1.72% 1311.28 B
04/10/06 - 04/13/06 54% 30% 1.80 -1 -0.49% 1289.12 B
04/03/06 - 04/07/06 47% 30% 1.57 -1 0.05% 1295.50 B
03/27/06 - 03/31/06 49% 29% 1.69 -1 -0.62% 1294.82 B
03/20/06 - 03/24/06 52% 29% 1.79 -1 -0.33% 1302.95 B
03/13/06 - 03/17/06 41% 39% 1.05 -1 2.02% 1307.25 B
03/06/06 - 03/10/06 52% 25% 2.08 -1 -0.45% 1281.42 S
02/27/06 - 03/03/06 58% 24% 2.42 -1 -0.17% 1287.23 S
02/21/06 - 02/24/06 52% 26% 2.00 -1 0.17% 1289.43 S
02/13/06 - 02/17/06 39% 41% 0.95 -1 1.60% 1287.24 B
02/06/06 - 02/10/06 34% 45% 0.76 -1 0.23% 1266.99 B
01/30/06 - 02/03/06 56% 24% 2.33 -1 -1.53% 1264.03 S
01/23/06 - 01/27/06 40% 41% 0.98 -1 1.76% 1283.72 B
01/17/06 - 01/20/06 54% 27% 2.00 -1 -2.03% 1261.49 S
01/09/06 - 01/13/06 60% 19% 3.16 -1 0.17% 1287.61 S
01/03/06 - 01/06/06 n/a n/a n/a -1 2.98% 1285.45 S
12/27/05 - 12/30/05 60% 20% 3.00 -1 -1.61% 1248.29 S
Edited by Russ, 17 August 2007 - 02:26 PM.
