9 replies to this topic

[A-ha]

i think we will have an attempted test next week... kindda shock wave but i dont think it will get anywhere close to those lows

[Trend-Signals]

i think we will have an attempted test next week... kindda shock wave but i dont think it will get anywhere close to those lows

Who would be shocked since MANY were expecting to crash.

Shock wave is MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZE.... ....

Don't you think???

Shock wave is to play out 1997 case as VIX pattern suggests and the rate cut.... the ingredient is there.


~~~


1997 VIX pattern de ja vu, 1997 ^ 1998 VIX level 37.50
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=74898



http://www.traders-t...?...74889&st=20

CAPITULATION - "R"eversal DAY, Screaming "R" Day




~~~


I remember quite a bit about both years. The picture to the left is me in the CBOT's then newly opened Dow pit on 10/27/97 . The photo appeared in Time magazine the week after the '97 crash. Greenspan was the cover and I'm on the index page, pictured between Slick Willie and Hunter S. Thompson. biggrin.gif

There was also an interview with a guy I'd never before heard of. Jim Kramer.

'97 was just a one day deal. A more volatile Feb. 27th. All off Asia. And Niederhoffer, lol. In fact another trader who'd been a subjet in the first Market Wizard's book sold into the subsequent rally, kept adding and lost millions.

'98 was more like today. The bad news about LTCM, Russia, Asia, Impeachment and Treasury spreads went on for months. It all ended with the biggest bang I'd ever seen. Around 2:30 on October 15 the Fed cut by 25bp. Dow futures rallied 500pts into the close. It wasn't until the trading days following 9/11 (almost 3 years) that the market saw those prices again!!!!


~~~



Anyone can elaborate on 1997-1998 to now? The financial crisis similarities?



VIX high 37.50 +/-, 2002 or 1997 de ja vu when market rallied 60% after making the bottom at 730 then rallied to 1170.

Then, another VIX spike in 1998.

Edited by Trend-Signals, 17 August 2007 - 04:35 PM.

[A-ha]

shock wave will not shock the people, but tease them

volume - price patterns suggest some attempted selling but since none of them will be more powerful than what we had yesterday, they all will fail.

i think we will have an attempted test next week... kindda shock wave but i dont think it will get anywhere close to those lows

Who would be shocked since MANY were expecting to crash.

Shock wave is MOTHER OF ALL SHORT SQUEEZE.... ....

Don't you think???

Shock wave is to play out 1997 case as VIX pattern suggests and the rate cut.... the ingredient is there.


~~~


1997 VIX pattern de ja vu, 1997 ^ 1998 VIX level 37.50
http://www.traders-t...showtopic=74898



http://www.traders-t...?...74889&st=20

CAPITULATION - "R"eversal DAY, Screaming "R" Day




~~~


I remember quite a bit about both years. The picture to the left is me in the CBOT's then newly opened Dow pit on 10/27/97 . The photo appeared in Time magazine the week after the '97 crash. Greenspan was the cover and I'm on the index page, pictured between Slick Willie and Hunter S. Thompson. biggrin.gif

There was also an interview with a guy I'd never before heard of. Jim Kramer.

'97 was just a one day deal. A more volatile Feb. 27th. All off Asia. And Niederhoffer, lol. In fact another trader who'd been a subjet in the first Market Wizard's book sold into the subsequent rally, kept adding and lost millions.

'98 was more like today. The bad news about LTCM, Russia, Asia, Impeachment and Treasury spreads went on for months. It all ended with the biggest bang I'd ever seen. Around 2:30 on October 15 the Fed cut by 25bp. Dow futures rallied 500pts into the close. It wasn't until the trading days following 9/11 (almost 3 years) that the market saw those prices again!!!!


~~~



Anyone can elaborate on 1997-1998 to now? The financial crisis similarities?



VIX high 37.50 +/-, 2002 or 1997 de ja vu when market rallied 60% after making the bottom at 730 then rallied to 1170.

Then, another VIX spike in 1998.

[n83]

i think we will have an attempted test next week... kindda shock wave but i dont think it will get anywhere close to those lows

no worry-fed will cut again if market tests lows-gg

many rate cuts left

[Trend-Signals]

shock wave will not shock the people, but tease them

volume - price patterns suggest some attempted selling but since none of them will be more powerful than what we had yesterday, they all will fail.

OK, I do not think that we need a retest of low since "Bear Trap" vice versa.

Have you checked 1997 price pattern?


btw, what is your view, LT TOP or Above SPX 1550?

[A-ha]

It all depends on how the rally, if any, goes.

I want to see leadership and institutional buying.

For the market to go significantly higher than summer highs, some of the IT internals must significantly improve

But at the moment, my best guess is we are in a trading range. something like 1550-1350

OK, I do not think that we need a retest of low since "Bear Trap" vice versa.

Have you checked 1997 price pattern?


btw, what is your view, LT TOP or Above SPX 1550?

[Cirrus]

xD...is that a Denarius on your avatar or another coin?

[A-ha]

xD...is that a Denarius on your avatar or another coin?

quite opposite, that is "Attila the Hun" coin...

Edited by A-ha, 17 August 2007 - 05:37 PM.

[Trend-Signals]

It all depends on how the rally, if any, goes.

I want to see leadership and institutional buying.

For the market to go significantly higher than summer highs, some of the IT internals must significantly improve

But at the moment, my best guess is we are in a trading range. something like 1550-1350

OK, I do not think that we need a retest of low since "Bear Trap" vice versa.

Have you checked 1997 price pattern?


btw, what is your view, LT TOP or Above SPX 1550?

[b] Yes, agree, we need to see leadership and institutional buying; however, it seems that we have extremely high shorts which that could fire up rally.

IT breadth indicators are showing positive divergences.

Not sure how strong China consumers, McDonald, are, but they will help.


Remember, CSCO Chamber's comment?

Lower $USD to $79 will also help.

[Trend-Signals]

a-ha...



btw, good call on the 8/17 (utlimate) climax

I was screaming ... on that day.... to capitulate to one bull....

but I saw intraday double bottom was coming....





Have a nice weekend.......... ALL

Edited by Trend-Signals, 17 August 2007 - 06:00 PM.