8 replies to this topic

[eminimee]

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VXO&p=W&st=1993-08-18&i=p97218119567&a=30102190&r=5185.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=8&mn=6&dy=0&i=p76377951514&a=78670243&r=4.png

[emdee]

Hi Tea, Great stuff as usual. One of your annotations states that you feel that we could see a lower low on the SnP almost immediately. As I mentioned in another post, the 1454-1461 area is significant in regards to s/r, 200 sma, Feb top (unorthodox H&S?). SnP is currently only about 1% below that level. Maybe we see a test of that area very early next week and head back down as you suggest to a lower low. Ideally, a lower low with positive divergences would be quite a set up to load the boat. At any rate, I am currently viewing the 1454-1461 area as a "band in the sand". Fwiw...Mike

[relax]

just imagine the panic a new low would create seems like a perfect setup to do the unthinkable and go to new highs

[underabigw]

Teaparty, I really admire your work and always look forward to your posts. I was wondering, since you think we could make another low, if you know what the volume ratio was for similar time periods in the past regarding any 9 to 1 up or down days? I noticed lately that we have had a few 9 to 1 volume down days but the one that bothers me (I'm in bear mkt mutual funds) is the 9 to 1 up volume day on Friday, as well as the high equity put call ratio and the low index put call ratio. Some of the worst mistakes I have ever made in the market was to not go long after 9 to 1 up days. What gives me pause is that the SPX/VIX ratio indicated to me that there was a major break down in the market when all of this started. This was further evidenced by the break down in the Summation Index and the $SPXA50. All three of these broke down with significant negative divergences from the market when it went to new highs. Is this type of market different with the high, and probably going higher vix and with the other circumstances I mentioned above. Or, does the Friday 9 to 1 up volume day trump everything else making it almost a cinch that we are going to rally much higher over the intermediate term? Thanks again for all your great work and I wish you continued good trading.

[eminimee]

Underabigw....I don't follow volume at all.....I'm the worst to ask...but as far as spx:vix..it just may be bottoming in an interesting spot...a weekly close below that breakout point won't be healthy though..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&i=p77296892999&a=57601821&r=5901.png

[underabigw]

Teaparty,

Thanks for getting back to me and updating me on the VIX issue.

Please keep up the excellent work.

Underabigw....I don't follow volume at all.....I'm the worst to ask...but as far as spx:vix..it just may be bottoming in an interesting spot...a weekly close below that breakout point won't be healthy though..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=7&mn=6&dy=0&i=p77296892999&a=57601821&r=5901.png

[mss]

Well Mr. B, we have a slight different outlook on this subject. Since you taught me all I know I hate to bring up a different thought, but I will, just to get the info flowing.
Go here:

SWING WAVES

Your charts are great and a real contribution to this board, thanks.
mss

[eminimee]

MSS...great stuff....but I don't see where we are differing.

[mss]

MSS.....I don't see where we are differing.

....we are not, I just like to jerk your chain once in awhile, to make sure you read my stuff.



besides you understand the 514tv chart

Edited by mss, 18 August 2007 - 08:37 PM.